2026 heat-pump prices and efficiency in Europe: southern vs Nordic markets

Southern vs Nordic Europe: the market variables that matter most

The 2026 comparison starts with an awkward but important fact: the supplied registry data does not include country-level heat-pump listing counts, country-level prices, or country-level SCOP distributions within the “warmer” and “colder” zones. So the registry can describe the broader European product universe and compare southern and Nordic countries on energy prices, grid carbon and subsidies, but it cannot fully rank southern versus Nordic product mixes by country from the corpus alone.

What it can show is that the European EPREL universe is now heavily weighted toward air-to-water heat pumps, which account for 30,452 of 60,989 recorded models, or 49.9% of the indexed market (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-air heat pumps add 21,065 models, or 34.5% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), while ground-water units remain niche at 213 models, or 0.35% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), and water-water units are smaller still at 31 models, or 0.05% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

Across the full market, average SCOP sits at 4.55, average capacity at 9.3 kW, and average outdoor noise at 61.3 dB (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That is the benchmark against which any regional value story has to be judged, whether buyers are browsing the live EPREL catalog, the rolling market index, or the full country comparison dashboard.

On brands, the market is still concentrated. Daikin Europe N.V. alone holds 14,668 listed models, or 24.05% of the indexed universe, with average SCOP 4.44 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. follows with 5,575 models and 9.14% share at average SCOP 4.51 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), and Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH stands out among major brands with average SCOP 4.69 across 3,602 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For southern versus Nordic buyers, three variables matter most in this corpus: the electricity-to-gas tariff ratio, the policy and grid backdrop by country, and the European-wide equipment mix on SCOP, type and refrigerant. That is enough to identify where heat pumps are easiest to run, where policy support is strongest, and where future-proof refrigerants are gaining traction. It is not enough to compute a country-by-country southern versus Nordic sticker-price ranking; the registry does not record those national average advertised prices here.

Which countries still make heat pumps cheap to run on electricity

Using the tariff ratio dataset, the lowest electricity-to-gas ratio among the warmer southern countries with both fuels reported is Portugal at 1.73 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Italy is at 2.0 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), Greece at 2.59 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), Spain at 2.79 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), and Croatia at 3.05 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Cyprus and Malta have no gas ratio in this corpus because gas price data are missing there (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

Among Nordic or colder countries with both fuels reported, Sweden is the clear outlier at just 1.3 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Denmark is at 2.63 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), Lithuania at 2.86 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), Latvia at 2.97 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), and Estonia at 3.03 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Finland, Norway and Iceland have no ratio because gas price data are absent in the source (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

That directly answers the break-even question. None of the warmer southern countries in this comparison sit above the roughly 3.7 electricity-to-gas threshold often used as a simple running-cost break-even for a SCOP 4 heat pump; the highest southern ratio here is Croatia at 3.05, still below that level (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). None of the colder Nordic countries with reported gas prices sit above it either; Estonia is highest at 3.03 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Across the full table, Poland lands almost exactly on 3.71, Belgium is at 3.9, the UK at 4.63, and Romania at 5.11 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), but those are outside the southern-versus-Nordic grouping in this article.

For buyers testing running-cost assumptions, this matters more than raw equipment efficiency. Sweden’s ratio of 1.3 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester) and Portugal’s 1.73 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester) both imply comparatively favourable heat-pump economics, albeit in very different climates. The useful next step is not a generic rule of thumb but a local scenario run in the heat-pump payback calculator.

Efficiency by climate zone: SCOP, capacity and noise in the 2026 product mix

The corpus does not contain average SCOP, average capacity or average noise split by warmer versus colder climate zone. So the exact numerical gap between southern and Nordic product mixes cannot be stated from this dataset.

What the corpus does provide is the current type-level efficiency structure of the wider European market. Air-water models average SCOP 4.54, average capacity 11.83 kW and average outdoor noise 59.8 dB across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Ground-water models average SCOP 4.77, capacity 18.45 kW and 58.8 dB across 213 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Water-water models are the efficiency leaders at average SCOP 6.15, with much larger average capacity of 35.65 kW and markedly lower average outdoor noise of 42.0 dB, but across only 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

Those gaps are material. Ground-water beats air-water on average SCOP by 0.23 points, with 6.62 kW more average capacity and 1.0 dB lower average outdoor noise (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Water-water beats air-water by 1.61 SCOP points, 23.82 kW of average capacity and 17.8 dB on outdoor noise (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). So if Nordic markets “reward efficiency more visibly”, the mechanism is likely a shift toward higher-performing system types or premium air-water units, not a generic uplift across the whole catalog. The zone-level split itself is not recorded here.

The top-SCOP leaderboard also shows how concentrated high performance is by type. In the top 15 models by SCOP, 11 are labelled air-water and 4 are water-water, with no ground-water entries in that cut (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That means air-water accounts for 73.3% of the top-15 set and water-water for 26.7% (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Buyers can inspect that live list in the top SCOP leaderboard and the dedicated air-to-water SCOP ranking.

The leading model in the snapshot is Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W at SCOP 7.0 and 10.0 kW minimum power (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Close behind are Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW at SCOP 6.97 and 35.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog), Waterkotte GmbH CTC EcoTouch 525 (water/water) at SCOP 6.97 and 34.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog), and Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW at SCOP 6.97 and 13.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog).

R290 and the refrigerant split: where low-GWP models are winning

The broad European answer is unambiguous: R290 remains a minority in the current EPREL universe, but it is the main named natural refrigerant in the indexed stock.

The market index puts natural refrigerants at 3.27% of all listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). In declared refrigerant usage, R290 appears in 537 listings, with two more declared as R290A and one as R290a, versus 13,935 listings on R32 and 1,896 on R410A plus 49 more on R410a (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). On the main spelling alone, R290’s share of the full 60,989-model universe is about 0.88% (537 of 60,989) (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), while R32 alone accounts for about 22.8% (13,935 of 60,989) (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The southern-versus-Nordic R290 share gap requested in the brief cannot be quantified from this corpus. There is no refrigerant split by climate zone or by country in the supplied data. So any claim that warmer markets currently have a larger R290 share must remain a hypothesis here, not a measured result.

Still, the regulatory context is visible. The refrigerant reference table records R134a with a 2026-01-01 phase-out date, R32 with 2027-01-01, and R410A with 2025-01-01 under the cited EU schedule (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Buyers comparing R290 models with R134a models or the wider refrigerants reference should read that as a future-proofing question as much as a performance one, alongside the underlying EU F-gas regulation.

Are the best-performing models also the best value?

The corpus does not include advertised prices for either the broader market or the top-performing set. So the price premium of the most efficient models, and whether higher SCOP generally coincides with higher advertised price, cannot be answered numerically from this dataset.

What can be said is that the highest-SCOP slice is not dominated by exotic water-water systems to the exclusion of mainstream products. Air-water models make up 11 of the top 15 SCOP entries, or 73.3%, while water-water accounts for 4 of 15, or 26.7% (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That suggests the premium end of the market still includes many systems that look commercially relevant for ordinary retrofit and new-build projects, even if the registry does not tell us what they cost.

There is also a clear concentration effect at the very top. The top-ranked set spans SCOP 6.88 to 7.0 (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog), against an all-market average of 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The gap between the market average and the number-one model is 2.45 SCOP points (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Even the fifteenth model, NIBE F1153-4 1X230V W/W, sits 2.33 points above the market average at SCOP 6.88 (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For buyers, the practical takeaway is that “best value” cannot be reduced to top SCOP. It depends on tariff ratio, climate load, subsidy access, installer familiarity, and refrigerant preference. The data support using the sizing calculator and subsidy calculator before treating any leaderboard winner as an automatic bargain.

What the policy and grid data say about the next buying cycle

This is where southern and Nordic markets diverge most clearly in the current data.

On grid carbon, colder Nordic countries have the cleaner power systems overall. Iceland records 11 gCO2/kWh, Sweden 14, Norway 18 and Finland 79 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Among warmer southern countries, the lowest grid intensity is Croatia at 134 gCO2/kWh, followed by Portugal at 153 and Spain at 158, while Italy is at 226, Greece at 360, Malta at 388 and Cyprus at 543 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). The lowest Nordic figure is therefore 532 gCO2/kWh below the highest southern one, comparing Iceland’s 11 with Cyprus’s 543 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

On subsidies, the picture flips only partially. The maximum heat-pump subsidy in the warmer-country set is Italy at €5,000 and Spain at €3,000, while Portugal, Greece, Croatia, Cyprus and Malta show no active maximum in this register snapshot (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). In the colder Nordic set, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway and Sweden all show no active maximum subsidy in this snapshot (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). So on the narrow subsidy metric supplied here, the southern side is somewhat stronger, but only because it contains a few active programmes while the colder-country set does not.

For combined policy-and-power-system context, the Nordic side still looks structurally stronger because its power systems are much cleaner while electricity-to-gas ratios remain favourable where gas data exist. Sweden pairs a tariff ratio of 1.3 with grid intensity of 14 gCO2/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Denmark combines a ratio of 2.63 with 142 gCO2/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Finland has no gas ratio in the table, but its grid intensity is just 79 gCO2/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

The southern side is more mixed. Spain combines a ratio of 2.79, grid intensity of 158 gCO2/kWh and a €3,000 maximum subsidy (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Italy combines a ratio of 2.0, grid intensity of 226 gCO2/kWh and a €5,000 maximum subsidy (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Portugal is especially attractive on running costs at ratio 1.73 and fairly clean at 153 gCO2/kWh, but shows no subsidy in this snapshot (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

So the present data support a nuanced reading rather than a simple north-versus-south winner. Nordic markets offer the cleaner-grid backdrop and, in some cases, strikingly favourable electricity-to-gas ratios. Southern markets can still be compelling where tariff ratios are low and subsidy support exists. The missing piece is zone-level pricing and refrigerant mix by country; until that appears in the registry, cross-border buyers should combine the country profiles, subsidy database, and official EPREL register with model-level filtering inside the catalog.

Sources

Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-05-23
Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — snapshot 2026-05-23
EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-23
IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-05-23
EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — snapshot 2026-05-23
Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot 2026-05-23

Continue reading

Heat pump payback calculator — Build a location-specific view of running costs, tariffs and simple payback.
Heat pump sizing basics — A practical primer on matching output, climate and emitter temperatures.
Refrigerants explained — Compare R290, R32 and other common declarations in EPREL.
How subsidies change the economics — See how grants alter upfront cost and cross-border value.