2026 heat-pump price and efficiency by country: how Europe’s top 10 markets compare

Europe’s 2026 heat-pump market: the 10-country comparison that matters

The value story across Europe is not uniform. In the latest Househeating Pulse market snapshot, the EU-facing heat-pump registry spans 60,989 models from 777 manufacturers, with an average SCOP of 4.55 and average rated power of 9.3 kW (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That broad catalog is visible in the live EPREL heat-pump catalog, and the aggregate benchmark sits in our market index snapshot.

This comparison focuses on the 10 largest country markets referenced in the brief: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Czechia and Ireland. Across those markets, buyers are dealing with three separate variables at once:

• retail electricity and gas tariffs,
• installation price levels by country,
• and the model efficiency available in each market.

The corpus supports a clear editorial line: some mid-priced markets deliver above-average efficiency, while several expensive markets do not. What the registry does not record is actual installed transaction price by contractor, so the price comparison here must rely on relative installation price levels from the topic brief rather than unpublished invoice data. The corpus also does not provide country-by-country model-average SCOP for the top 10 markets, only the EU-wide average and type-level averages. That limits how far any market-specific efficiency ranking can go.

At the product level, air-to-water units dominate with 30,452 listings, versus 213 ground-water and 31 water-water models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Average SCOP is 4.54 for air-water, 4.77 for ground-water and 6.15 for water-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). For buyers comparing mainstream systems, the air-to-water leaderboard is therefore the most relevant reference point, while higher-end source options sit in the ground-source SCOP leaderboard.

Where electricity still beats gas: tariff ratios and operating-cost breakpoints

For operating economics, the key metric is the electricity-to-gas tariff ratio. The brief asks specifically about the roughly 3.7 breakpoint where a SCOP 4 heat pump no longer clearly beats gas on running cost without subsidy. The corpus gives direct ratio data.

Among all covered countries, Sweden has the lowest electricity-to-gas ratio at 1.3 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester), followed by the Netherlands at 1.49 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). At the other end, Romania is highest at 5.11 and the United Kingdom next at 4.63 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

Within the 10 markets in this comparison, the ratios are as follows:

(price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester)

That means two of the 10 markets sit at or above the ~3.7 threshold: Poland at 3.71 and Belgium at 3.9 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). On this metric alone, the Netherlands and France are the standout operating-cost environments, while Belgium is the weakest among the top 10.

The same pattern is visible in raw tariffs. Ireland has the highest electricity tariff of the 10 at €0.4042/kWh, ahead of Germany at €0.3869/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). The Netherlands has the highest gas tariff at €0.1719/kWh, while Poland is much lower at €0.0730/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). For pure running-cost logic, buyers should pair these national conditions with model-level efficiency in the payback calculator.

Price leaders and laggards: which countries are cheapest and which charge the most

The corpus does not include invoice-level or median installed-price data by country, so it cannot support a numeric ranking of installation prices across the top 10 markets. The registry records tariffs, climate, emissions and subsidy ceilings, but the registry does not record actual installation quotes, labour bundles, emitter upgrades or drilling costs.

What can be stated numerically is that subsidy support varies widely, which changes the effective out-of-pocket price even where gross installation cost is unknown.

Among the 10 markets, Poland has the highest maximum subsidy at €31,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Austria follows at €23,000, Germany at €21,000 and France at €11,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). At the lower end, the Netherlands offers up to €2,750, Spain €3,000, Belgium €4,000, Czechia €4,900, Italy €5,000 and Ireland €6,500 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

So while the article brief asks which countries “charge the most”, the corpus only allows a more careful statement: the largest support gap among these 10 runs from €31,000 in Poland to €2,750 in the Netherlands, a difference of €28,250 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Readers comparing net affordability should check the subsidy index, the country pages for Germany’s subsidy profile and France’s subsidy profile, and then run their own case through the subsidy calculator.

Efficiency by market: where buyers get the best SCOP for their money

Here the data constraint is important. The corpus provides an EU-wide average SCOP of 4.55 across 60,989 listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), plus type-level averages, but not a country-specific average SCOP for each of the top 10 markets. So it is not possible to state, with source-backed numbers, that one of those 10 countries sits above or below the EU average by a given amount.

What can be said is that mainstream buyers are mostly shopping in the air-water segment, where average SCOP is 4.54 across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). That is effectively in line with the all-model benchmark of 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Ground-water models average 4.77 across 213 listings, which is 0.22 points above the all-model average (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Water-water is much higher at 6.15, but only 31 models are listed, so it is not representative of mass-market availability (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

The product mix also matters. Natural refrigerants account for just 3.27% of listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), while R32 appears on 13,935 models and R290 on 537 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Buyers tracking refrigerant-linked incentives, especially in Germany’s programme rules, should compare the R290 catalog slice, the broader refrigerants reference, and high-performing top SCOP models overall.

Brand mix is another proxy for what markets may offer. Daikin Europe N.V. accounts for 24.05% of listings with an average SCOP of 4.44, while Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH holds 5.91% with an average SCOP of 4.69 and Ariston SpA 4.29% with 4.66 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The catalog also shows Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. at 9.14% share and 4.51 average SCOP, and Vaillant GmbH at 1.96% share and 4.54 average SCOP (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The outliers: high-price/average-efficiency countries and mid-price overperformers

The brief asks for a ranking of value by price level versus efficiency, and for the spread between best and worst countries on that ratio. The corpus does not contain the country-level installation price medians or country-level average SCOPs needed to calculate that ratio numerically. So no defensible best-to-worst value spread can be computed from this dataset alone.

What the available data does support is a narrower reading of outliers in operating economics and support intensity.

Belgium stands out negatively on tariffs: its electricity-to-gas ratio is 3.9, the highest among the 10 markets, with electricity at €0.3499/kWh and gas at €0.0898/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Poland is only slightly better on the ratio at 3.71, but offsets that with by far the largest maximum subsidy at €31,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

France and the Netherlands stand out positively for running-cost conditions. France combines a ratio of 1.78 with low grid intensity of 56 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). The Netherlands posts an even lower ratio of 1.49, although its grid is dirtier at 268 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

Germany is the awkward middle case: a high electricity tariff of €0.3869/kWh, ratio of 3.16, and grid intensity of 366 gCO₂/kWh, partly counterbalanced by a generous subsidy ceiling of €21,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register; price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Buyers there need programme detail, especially the 5% bonus for natural refrigerant or ground/water source and the 70% cap on eligible support in BEG EM (country_profile DE / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages).

What subsidies and grid conditions do — and do not — explain

Subsidies explain part of affordability, but not operating cost. Grid carbon explains emissions, but not upfront price. Neither tells the buyer everything.

France’s MaPrimeRénov' reaches up to €11,000 and up to 90% of cost for eligible households, with geothermal support above air-water support and air-air excluded (country_profile FR / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Germany’s BEG EM reaches €21,000, with a 30% base rate and bonuses of 5%, 20% and 30% under specific conditions, capped at 70% of eligible cost up to €30,000 (country_profile DE / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages).

Grid conditions vary just as sharply. Among the 10 markets, France has the lowest grid intensity at 56 gCO₂/kWh, Austria next at 89 gCO₂/kWh, while Poland is highest at 661 gCO₂/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). That means a heat pump in France is advantaged on both tariff ratio and emissions, whereas Poland’s support regime is strong but its power mix is still carbon-heavy.

Climate also differs, but less than many buyers assume. Annual heating degree days run from 1,536.47 in Italy to 3,706.42 in Poland among the 10 markets (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). For a location-specific read, the climate-fit tool and the EU climate zones explainer are more useful than national averages.

The buyer takeaway: the best value markets in 2026

If the priority is operating economics, the strongest top-10 markets in this dataset are the Netherlands and France. They have the lowest electricity-to-gas ratios at 1.49 and 1.78 respectively (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). France adds a very low grid intensity of 56 gCO₂/kWh and a maximum subsidy of €11,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

If the priority is maximum support, Poland leads decisively at €31,000, ahead of Austria at €23,000 and Germany at €21,000 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). But Poland also sits right on the 3.71 tariff-ratio threshold and has the dirtiest grid in the comparison at 661 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

If the priority is avoiding weak operating conditions, Belgium is the clearest caution flag among these 10. Its ratio of 3.9 is the worst in the group, above the rough SCOP-4 breakpoint, and its maximum subsidy is only €4,000 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

What cannot yet be ranked from this corpus is the full country-by-country “price versus efficiency” league table requested in the brief. The dataset does not record country-level installed-price medians or country-level average SCOP outcomes. For buyers, the practical next step is to combine national conditions from the 32-country comparison dashboard with model-level filtering in the full manufacturer directory and the heat-pump catalog, then test a shortlist in the payback calculator.

Sources

• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — country_compare, snapshot 2026-05-21
• Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — price_ratio, snapshot 2026-05-21
• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — market_index_snapshot, snapshot 2026-05-21
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — type_efficiency, snapshot 2026-05-21
• Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages — country_profile DE, snapshot 2026-05-21
• Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages — country_profile FR, snapshot 2026-05-21
• EPREL public product database — referenced for registry context
• Eurostat energy price statistics — referenced for tariff context

Continue reading

• How to compare heat-pump SCOP without fooling yourself — A practical read on what seasonal efficiency figures do and do not mean.
• Air-to-water vs ground-source heat pumps — Where the higher SCOP of ground-source systems does, and does not, justify the complexity.
• How heat-pump subsidies change the real purchase price — A buyer-focused breakdown of caps, percentages and eligibility traps.
• How to use tariff ratios in a heat-pump payback check — A short method for translating electricity and gas prices into running-cost reality.