2026 heat-pump market index: Portugal vs Greece vs Austria

Portugal, Greece and Austria in one glance: the market-size and baseline comparison

The comparison promised in the headline runs into a basic data constraint: the research corpus does not include country-level EPREL listing counts, country-level brand counts, country-level SCOP, country-level energy-class shares, country-level noise, type mix, refrigerant counts or top-brand concentration for Portugal, Greece and Austria. The available EPREL-derived snapshot is EU-wide only, via the live market index.

What the registry snapshot does show is the scale of the EU baseline against which these three markets would need to be judged. Across the indexed catalogue, there are 60,989 heat-pump models and 777 manufacturers (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The EU-wide average seasonal coefficient of performance is 4.55, average declared capacity is 9.3 kW, and average outdoor sound power is 61.3 dB (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That means any statement that one of the three countries has more model diversity than another, or sits above or below the EU average on SCOP, cannot be supported from this corpus. Readers looking for the underlying EU benchmark can inspect the live EPREL catalog, the manufacturer directory, and the country comparison dashboard. For methodology, the relevant formulas sit in our methods page.

The country profiles do, however, establish that the three markets operate in very different demand contexts. Portugal is a warmer market with 851.63 annual heating degree days and a mean annual temperature of 16.54°C (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Greece is also classed as warmer, but with higher cooling demand and slightly higher heating need at 1,152.59 annual heating degree days and 1,095.82 cooling degree days (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Austria is structurally different: an average climate-zone market with 3,309.19 annual heating degree days and a mean January temperature of -1.64°C (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages).

Those climate differences matter when reading the rest of the available evidence. Austria has to sustain a much heavier heating load than Portugal or Greece, while the southern markets face a more mixed heating-cooling profile. The corpus supports that framing. It does not support a country ranking by EPREL model count.

Efficiency and comfort: SCOP, energy classes and noise across the three markets

Again, the hard limit is the data. The corpus contains only the EU-wide efficiency and noise baseline, not country-level averages for Portugal, Greece or Austria.

At EU level, the average SCOP is 4.55 and average outdoor noise is 61.3 dB (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). On energy labels, the largest class in the indexed stock is A+++ with 23,466 models, followed by A+ with 16,845 and A++ with 8,924 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). As shares of all 60,989 indexed models, that is 38.5% A+++, 27.6% A+, and 14.6% A++ (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Combined, the three top classes account for 80.7% of listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That EU baseline is useful context for buyers scanning the top SCOP leaderboard, the air-to-water SCOP ranking or the quietest heat pumps. But the registry snapshot supplied here does not allow a numerical answer to the question “which of Portugal, Greece and Austria has the highest share of top efficiency classes” or “which has the lowest average outdoor noise”. The registry excerpt simply does not provide country slices for those fields.

The editorial angle in the prompt — Austria as the most mature and balanced market — is plausible in light of its colder climate and stronger subsidy support, but the efficiency-class and noise part of that claim cannot be demonstrated numerically from this dataset alone.

What buyers actually see on shelves: type mix, brand concentration and model diversity

Country-level shelf mix is another area where the corpus stops at EU aggregate level. So the leading heat-pump type in Portugal, Greece or Austria by listing count is not recorded here, and neither is each country’s top-5 brand concentration.

The EU-wide mix is clear enough. Air-to-water units dominate with 30,452 listings, or 49.9% of all indexed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-to-air follows with 21,065 listings, or 34.5% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Heat-pump water heaters account for 9,228 listings, or 15.1%, while ground-water units are just 213 models, or 0.35%, and water-water units only 31, or 0.05% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Buyers can browse those segments directly in the catalog, including air-to-water heat pumps and air-to-air heat pumps.

Brand structure is also concentrated at EU level. Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and a 24.05% share (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. follows with 5,575 models and 9.14% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA has 5,207 models and 8.54%, Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH 3,602 and 5.91%, and Ariston SpA 2,618 and 4.29% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Together, those top five brands account for 51.93% of indexed EU listings (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That is a useful calibration point for any national market discussion: the EU catalogue as a whole is broad in absolute terms, but heavily shaped by a relatively short list of manufacturers. What cannot be said from the corpus is whether Portugal is more concentrated than Greece, or whether Austria offers broader brand choice than either southern market. The brand leaderboard hub and full manufacturer index help with EU-level navigation, but not with country-level concentration in this dataset extract.

Refrigerants in the wild: R32, R290 and how far each market has moved toward lower-GWP options

This is where the gap between the article brief and the actual corpus is most obvious. The brief asks for country-level refrigerant counts, especially R32 and R290, for Portugal, Greece and Austria. The corpus does not include them.

At EU level, R32 is the dominant declared refrigerant with 13,935 models, or 22.8% of all indexed listings (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). R290 appears on 537 models, or 0.88% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). R410A appears on 1,896 models, or 3.11%, with additional variant spellings including R410a on 49 models and R410 on 10 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The market snapshot separately states a natural-refrigerant share of 3.27% across the indexed universe (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The broader refrigerants reference explains why those distinctions matter. In the supplied reference table, R290 is propane with GWP 0 and A3 flammability (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). R32 is difluoromethane with GWP 771 and A2L flammability, with a listed phase-out date of 2027-01-01 in the supplied regulatory table (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). R410A, by contrast, carries GWP 1924 and a listed phase-out date of 2025-01-01 in the same table (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

For readers wanting the underlying regulation, the authoritative text is EU Regulation 2024/573. For product browsing, the relevant catalog slices are R32 heat pumps and R290 heat pumps. What cannot be answered from this corpus is whether Portugal, Greece or Austria has moved farther toward R290 by model share.

Running-cost reality: electricity-to-gas ratios and where heat pumps beat gas most easily

This is the one cross-country question the corpus can answer cleanly.

Using the latest tariff inputs in the country profiles, Portugal’s electricity price is EUR 0.2434/kWh and gas is EUR 0.1405/kWh, giving an electricity-to-gas ratio of 1.73 (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Greece sits at EUR 0.2378/kWh electricity and EUR 0.0918/kWh gas, a ratio of 2.59 (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Austria is at EUR 0.3272/kWh electricity and EUR 0.1221/kWh gas, a ratio of 2.68 (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages).

Against the article’s stated rough break-even threshold of 3.7 for a SCOP 4 heat pump, all three countries sit below that line on tariff ratio alone. Portugal clears it most comfortably because 1.73 is furthest below 3.7, followed by Greece at 2.59, then Austria at 2.68 (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Put differently, among these three, Portugal presents the easiest pure fuel-price arithmetic for heat pumps relative to gas, while Austria is the tightest of the three on that single measure.

A compact comparison:

Readers can test alternative assumptions in the heat-pump payback calculator. For broader tariff context across Europe, Eurostat remains the underlying statistical source, while our country comparison page rolls the latest available values into one dashboard.

Which market looks most mature in 2026: the clearest trade-offs and standout country profiles

A full maturity ranking was supposed to rest on seven numerical questions. The corpus fully answers only one of them — running-cost ratios — and partially answers climate and subsidy context.

On climate, Austria is plainly the heaviest-heating market of the three at 3,309.19 heating degree days, versus 1,152.59 for Greece and 851.63 for Portugal (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). On grid carbon, Austria is also lowest at 89 gCO₂/kWh, compared with Portugal at 153 and Greece at 360 (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). On subsidy support recorded in the corpus, Austria is the only one of the three with an active programme captured here, with a maximum support amount of EUR 23,000 and one active subsidy listed (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Portugal and Greece have no subsidies recorded in their country profiles in this corpus (country_profile / same provenance). Austria’s listed programme is Raus aus Öl, shown here with a maximum amount of EUR 23,000 and a cap of 75% of cost for low-income cases (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). The local subsidy pages are Austria subsidies, Portugal subsidies and Greece subsidies.

So the corpus supports a narrower conclusion than the original brief suggests. Austria looks like the most structurally established heat market among the three because it combines a much colder climate, the lowest grid carbon intensity, and recorded subsidy support (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). Portugal and Greece, by contrast, look warmer and more tariff-favourable for heat pumps relative to gas, especially Portugal with an electricity-to-gas ratio of 1.73 (country_profile / same provenance).

What the corpus does not prove is the stronger market-structure claim: that Austria is more mature on model diversity, brand breadth, efficiency mix, noise or lower-GWP refrigerant adoption. The registry excerpt simply does not contain those country-level cuts. If EPREL country filters for those measures are added to the research base later, that ranking can be made properly. For now, the evidence supports this more careful read: Austria looks strongest on heating context and support structure, while Portugal — and to a lesser extent Greece — offers the cleaner running-cost arithmetic.

Sources

• country_profile — Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages. Snapshot date: 2026-06-25.
• country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot date: 2026-06-25.
• market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot date: 2026-06-25.
• refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot date: 2026-06-25.

Continue reading

• How to read SCOP, COP and energy labels — A practical refresher on the efficiency metrics behind heat-pump comparisons.
• R290 vs R32 heat pumps — What the refrigerant split means for GWP, flammability class and product choice.
• Heat-pump payback basics — A simple framework for translating tariffs and SCOP into running-cost comparisons.
• Air-to-water vs air-to-air heat pumps — A buyer-focused look at the two biggest product categories in the catalog.