2026 heat-pump market index for the EU-15 excluding the biggest markets

Methodology: how we built a smaller-markets heat-pump index from EPREL

This index is a structural comparison of smaller EU-15 heat-pump markets, not a market-size league table. The aim is to compare product mix, efficiency signals, refrigerant choices and brand concentration using the current EPREL catalogue snapshot rather than installed base or sales volumes. The underlying market snapshot covers 60,989 listed models from 777 manufacturers as of 2026-05-31, with an overall average SCOP of 4.55 and an average outdoor sound level of 61.3 dB (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That distinction matters. EPREL is a product registry, available through the EPREL public database, so it records what manufacturers register for sale, not what households actually buy. It is therefore well suited to a comparative catalogue index, and less suited to claims about installed base, annual shipments or replacement cycles. Where those questions arise, the registry does not record them.

For readers who want the broader backdrop, the live market snapshot, the full heat-pump catalog, the country comparison dashboard and the site methodology page show the same dataset from different angles.

One hard limit: the research corpus provided here does not include the country-level EPREL ranking needed to identify which smaller EU-15 country has the highest average SCOP, the highest R290 share, the most premium pricing position, the largest A+++ share, or the greatest single-brand dominance within that specific smaller-market set. So those exact country rankings cannot be stated numerically from this corpus without fabrication. What the corpus does support is a precise reading of the European catalogue structure that those smaller markets sit inside.

The headline ranking: which overlooked EU markets look most efficient, premium and advanced

At European catalogue level, the average registered heat pump sits at SCOP 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Efficiency is not evenly distributed across product types. Water-to-water models have by far the highest average SCOP at 6.15 across 31 models, ahead of ground-water at 4.77 across 213 models and air-water at 4.54 across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). That already hints at the likely fault line inside the smaller markets: countries skewed toward specialist hydronic or ground-coupled systems should look structurally more “advanced” on catalogue efficiency than those dominated by mainstream air-to-water or air-to-air lines.

The top end of the catalogue reinforces that point. Among the highest-SCOP listings, Waterkotte GmbH EcoTouch DS 5034.5 T (water/water) and Waterkotte GmbH CTC EcoTouch 525 (water/water) both reach SCOP 6.97, while Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW reaches SCOP 6.97 and Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW reaches SCOP 6.97 as well (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Readers can inspect the wider top SCOP leaderboard and the dedicated air-to-water SCOP ranking.

Energy labels show a similarly top-heavy distribution. A+++ accounts for 23,466 models out of 60,989, or roughly 38.5% of the full catalogue, while A++ accounts for 8,924 models and A+ for 16,845 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That means around three quarters of listed models are already in the A+ to A+++ bands, though the corpus does not break that down by the smaller-market country group requested.

On “premium” positioning, the corpus again sets a limit: there is no country-level model pricing table here, and the registry snapshot provided does not include transaction prices. So the question of which smaller market is most premium on pricing or positioning cannot be answered directly from this corpus. The closest available structural signal is product composition: water-water models average 35.65 kW and ground-water 18.45 kW, versus 11.83 kW for air-water and 5.41 kW for air-air (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). In practice, markets tilted toward larger hydronic systems often look more specialist than those centred on smaller split units, but the corpus does not provide country-by-country pricing proof.

Brand structure: where one manufacturer dominates and where the field is fragmented

At pan-European catalogue level, the brand picture is concentrated at the top and very long-tailed underneath. Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 registered models and a 24.05% share, followed by Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. with 5,575 models and 9.14%, and JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA with 5,207 models and 8.54% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The next tier is much smaller: Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH holds 5.91% with 3,602 models, Ariston SpA 4.29% with 2,618 models, and ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE 2.49% with 1,516 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Vaillant GmbH and BDR Thermea Group B.V. sit at 1.96% and 1.52% respectively (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

That matters for the smaller-market story because a fragmented catalogue and a concentrated catalogue imply different buyer experiences. In fragmented markets, installers and journalists usually see more diverse line-ups and more room for niche high-efficiency products. In concentrated markets, one or two multinational brands tend to define the visible offer. But the supplied corpus does not provide the country-level brand shares needed to say which smaller EU-15 market is most dominated by a single manufacturer, nor to compare the most concentrated country with the least concentrated one numerically.

What can be said is that Europe-wide dominance is real. Daikin alone accounts for almost one quarter of all listings at 24.05% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Yet the market is also broad: the snapshot still spans 777 manufacturers across 60,989 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). For readers comparing supplier breadth, the full manufacturer index is more informative than sales-market headlines.

There are also meaningful efficiency differences between leading brands. Bosch averages SCOP 4.69, Ariston 4.66, and Daikin 4.44, while Hitachi’s European entity averages 4.18 across its listed models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Those figures do not by themselves prove product quality or field performance, but they do show that catalogue share and average declared efficiency are not the same thing.

Refrigerants: how far the smaller markets have moved toward R290

The continental catalogue remains overwhelmingly fluorinated. R32 appears on 13,935 listings, while R410A appears on 1,896 listings and a further 49 are declared as “R410a” with different casing (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). By contrast, R290 appears on 537 listings, plus two as “R290A” and one as “R290a” (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

Using the market index’s normalised measure, natural refrigerants account for 3.27% of the catalogue (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). So the broad European picture in 2026 is not “R290 already won”; it is that propane is visible, strategically important and still a minority in the registry.

That said, policy pressure is clear. In the reference table, R32 is listed with an F-gas phase-out date of 2027-01-01 and R410A with 2025-01-01 under the cited EU framework (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Readers tracking that transition can compare the live R290 catalogue, the remaining R134a listings, and the site refrigerants reference. The regulation basis is EU Regulation 2024/573.

The user’s question asks which smaller market has the highest share of R290 listings and what percentage of its catalogue uses R290. The corpus does not contain that country-level refrigerant split, so the exact ranking cannot be stated. The same applies to identifying which smaller markets are still most tied to legacy refrigerants. The registry snapshot here shows the European pattern, not the country-by-country split inside the chosen smaller-market subset.

Efficiency by product type: which segments lift or drag the market average

The cleanest answer in the corpus is by type. Water-water is the most efficient segment on declared SCOP at 6.15 across 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Ground-water follows at 4.77 across 213 models, then air-water at 4.54 across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Air-air and heat-pump water heaters are present in large numbers — 21,065 and 9,228 models respectively — but the provided aggregation does not include average SCOP for those two categories (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). So the registry does not allow a complete all-type SCOP ranking from this corpus.

That makes the clustering fairly clear:

(type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation)

Water-water clearly lifts the efficiency frontier, but it is numerically tiny at 31 models. Air-water, by contrast, defines the centre of gravity because it represents almost half the total catalogue: 30,452 out of 60,989 models, or about 49.9% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-air is the second large pillar at 21,065 models, about 34.5% of the catalogue (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For smaller EU-15 markets, that implies two distinct routes to a high average: either a market can carry more specialist water-water or ground-source equipment, or it can be an unusually strong air-water market with a high A+++ mix. The corpus supports the first logic directly, but not the country-specific ranking required to prove the second. Readers comparing system fit by climate can pair this with the climate-zone explainer and the climate fit tool.

What the data says about the next wave of Europe’s heat-pump market

The core takeaway is that the “smaller markets” are unlikely to behave as a single bloc. The European catalogue already shows the ingredients for divergence: a mainstream centre dominated by air-water and air-air products, a thin but very high-efficiency specialist layer in water-water and ground-water, and a refrigerant transition that is under way but still incomplete.

The broad market is still led by high-volume multinational catalogues, especially Daikin Europe N.V. at 24.05% share (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). But the efficiency frontier is being set by much smaller specialist products such as Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W at SCOP 7.0 and the leading Waterkotte entries at SCOP 6.97 (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That is a familiar pattern in maturing markets: the catalogue leader is not always the efficiency leader.

The refrigerant shift tells a similar story. R290 is present and important, but still only 3.27% of the overall catalogue on the market-index measure, against 13,935 R32 listings and 1,896 R410A listings plus casing variants (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). So the next wave is less about universal convergence than about uneven migration: some markets will move faster toward propane and higher-end hydronic systems, while others will remain brand-led and fluorinated for longer.

What cannot yet be proved from this corpus is which smaller EU-15 country is currently top on SCOP, A+++ share, R290 share, premium positioning or concentration. Those rankings require country-level EPREL aggregates that are not present in the supplied data. Until then, the defensible reading is structural: the real divide is not “big markets versus small markets”, but fragmented high-efficiency catalogues versus concentrated mainstream ones.

Sources

• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot 2026-05-31
• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-31
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-05-31
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-31
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-05-31
• EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — snapshot 2026-05-31

Continue reading

• Heat pump sizing guide — A practical starting point for matching output, emitter temperatures and building demand.
• Heat pump refrigerants guide — A plain-language reference for R290, R32 and the remaining legacy gases in European catalogues.
• SCOP and energy labels explained — How to read A+++, SCOP and test conditions without marketing shortcuts.
• Heat pump subsidy guide — Where grants matter, and where electricity, gas and climate still dominate the economics.