2026 heat-pump market index: Baltics vs Balkans by brand, price and efficiency

The two-region snapshot: how big the Baltic and Balkan listings are

The brief asks for a 2026 comparison between the Baltics and the Balkans by brand, price, efficiency, refrigerant and type mix. The problem is that the supplied corpus does not include any Baltic-region or Balkan-region EPREL slice. It contains an all-Europe snapshot, an all-Europe brand ranking, an all-Europe type-efficiency table, a refrigerant reference table, selected country-level climate and energy-price indicators, and a top-SCOP leaderboard. It does not provide regional model counts, regional prices, regional SCOP averages, regional refrigerant shares, or regional brand shares.

So the first hard result is negative but important: the registry slice supplied here cannot answer how large the Baltic and Balkan listing pools are, because no regional listing counts are present in the corpus. The only market-wide baseline available is the full European snapshot: 60,989 heat-pump models from 777 manufacturers as of 2026-07-18 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Readers can inspect that wider baseline in the live market index, the full EPREL catalog and the full manufacturer directory.

What can be said from the corpus is that the European catalog is dominated by two large equipment families: air-water at 30,452 models and air-air at 21,065 models, with hp-water-heaters at 9,228 models, ground-water at 213 models and water-water at 31 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That wider composition matters because any Baltic-vs-Balkan comparison would need to control for type mix before drawing conclusions about “better efficiency” or “lower prices”. The methodology page is the right place to check how those aggregates are built.

A second limitation is price. The article seed requires median or average listing price by region, but the corpus contains no price field at all. The registry supplied here does not record Baltic or Balkan listing prices, nor any Europe-wide average price. That question cannot be answered from this dataset.

Who dominates: brand concentration and top manufacturers in each market

The corpus also does not provide regional brand rankings for the Baltics or the Balkans. So it cannot tell which manufacturer leads in each of those two regions, what the top five shares are in each, what the top ten shares are in each, or whether one region is more concentrated than the other.

What it does provide is the Europe-wide leaderboard. Across the full snapshot, Daikin Europe N.V. holds 24.05% of listings with 14,668 models and an average SCOP of 4.44 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. ranks second at 9.14% with 5,575 models and average SCOP 4.51 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA follows at 8.54% with 5,207 models and average SCOP 4.18 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The rest of the European top five is Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH at 5.91% and 3,602 models with average SCOP 4.69, then Ariston SpA at 4.29% and 2,618 models with average SCOP 4.66 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Together, the top five account for 51.93% of all listed models when their shares are added directly from the corpus: 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% + 5.91% + 4.29% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The European top ten adds ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE at 2.49%, Vaillant GmbH at 1.96%, BDR Thermea Group B.V. at 1.52%, GENERAL HVAC Solutions Euro GmbH at 1.51%, and Panasonic Marketing Europe GmbH at 1.47% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Those ten brands sum to 60.88% of listings by direct addition of the reported shares (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

Source for all rows: (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation)

For buyers trying to infer “presence plus efficiency”, Bosch stands out in the top five with 3,602 models and average SCOP 4.69, ahead of Ariston’s 4.66 on 2,618 models and well ahead of Hitachi’s 4.18 on 5,207 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). But that is a Europe-wide observation, not a Baltic or Balkan one. The regional split required by the brief is absent. Readers wanting the live brand pages can use the leaderboard hub or brand filters such as Daikin listings.

Price versus performance: are higher-SCOP listings more expensive?

The short answer from this corpus is that the price side of the equation is missing. No average price, median price or list price field is present in the supplied data, so the question “are higher-SCOP listings more expensive in the Baltics than in the Balkans?” cannot be answered here.

On performance alone, the Europe-wide average SCOP is 4.55 across the full 60,989-model snapshot (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). By type, the highest average SCOP belongs to water-water models at 6.15 across 31 listings, followed by ground-water at 4.77 across 213 listings and air-water at 4.54 across 30,452 listings (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). SCOP is not reported in this table for hp-water-heaters or air-air, so the registry slice does not support all-type comparisons on that metric (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

The top-SCOP leaderboard underlines how narrow the very high end is. The single highest-SCOP model in the supplied extract is Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W at SCOP 7.0 (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Several others cluster at 6.97, including Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW, Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW, and Waterkotte GmbH EcoTouch DS 5034.5 T (water/water) (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). The live top SCOP ranking and air-to-water SCOP leaderboard give the fuller picture.

What the market sells: type mix, efficiency and average capacity

Again, no Baltic-vs-Balkan type mix is included in the corpus. But the all-Europe type composition is clear enough to frame what a regional split would need to test.

Air-water is the largest type in the database at 30,452 models, equal to roughly half of all listed models when compared against the 60,989-model total (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-air is second at 21,065 models, and hp-water-heaters third at 9,228 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Ground-water and water-water remain niche by count at 213 and 31 models respectively (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For average capacity, water-water models are the largest at 35.65 kW, ground-water at 18.45 kW, air-water at 11.83 kW, and air-air at 5.41 kW (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). For outdoor noise, the same table reports 42.0 dB for water-water, 58.8 dB for ground-water, 59.8 dB for air-water, and 64.1 dB for air-air (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

That means the type with the highest average SCOP is also the smallest in listing count: water-water at 6.15 SCOP on 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). The type with the largest listing share is air-water at 30,452 models, but its average SCOP is lower at 4.54 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). If a Baltic market were skewed more heavily toward colder-climate air-water products while a Balkan market carried more air-air products, their average SCOPs and prices would not be directly comparable without that type adjustment. The corpus, however, does not supply those regional mixes.

The country-comparison table does show that the three Baltic states in the wider country dataset sit in the colder climate zone: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all marked “colder”, with annual HDD18 of 4,474.47, 4,407.08 and 4,423.05 respectively (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Several Balkan countries in the supplied table span warmer and average zones, such as Bulgaria at “average”, Croatia at “warmer”, Greece at “warmer”, Romania at “average” and Slovenia at “average” (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). That context may help explain why regional product mixes could diverge, but it is not itself a listing snapshot.

Refrigerants as the clearest split: R290, R32 and phase-out exposure

This is the section where the article seed most clearly outruns the corpus. No Baltic or Balkan refrigerant mix is supplied, so the share of R290, R32 and “other” refrigerants in each region cannot be computed from the data provided.

At Europe-wide level, however, the declared refrigerant mix is heavily concentrated in R32 and R410A-family codes. R32 appears in 13,935 listings, while R410A appears in 1,896 listings, plus 49 under the variant code “R410a” and 10 under “R410” (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). R290 appears in 537 listings, with two additional “R290A” and one “R290a” declarations (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The market-wide natural refrigerant share is 3.27% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The supporting refrigerant table identifies R290 as propane with GWP 0 and natural=true, R32 with GWP 771 and a phase-out date of 2027-01-01 in the supplied schedule, R134a with GWP 1300 and a phase-out date of 2026-01-01, and R410A with GWP 1924 and a phase-out date of 2025-01-01 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). For the regulatory background, see the EU F-gas Regulation 2024/573 and our own refrigerants reference.

So which region is more exposed to the F-gas phase-out? The corpus does not provide a Baltic-vs-Balkan refrigerant split, so it cannot support a regional exposure ranking. What it does show is the Europe-wide baseline: low-GWP natural refrigerants remain a small minority at 3.27%, while R32 alone is far more common by listing count at 13,935 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Readers can inspect the live R290 catalog slice and R134a listings directly.

What the numbers mean for buyers and installers

The clearest takeaway is methodological. A Baltic-vs-Balkan buying argument cannot be built responsibly from Europe-wide aggregates alone. The supplied dataset is strong enough to show how the European heat-pump catalog is structured in 2026, but not strong enough to identify whether the Baltics lean more efficient, whether the Balkans are cheaper, which brands dominate either region, or which side is more exposed to the refrigerant transition.

What can be said safely is narrower:

• Europe-wide supply is highly concentrated at the top, with Daikin alone at 24.05% and the top ten brands at 60.88% of listings (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).
• Air-water products dominate the catalog by count at 30,452 models, while water-water products lead on average SCOP at 6.15 but are rare at 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).
• Natural refrigerants remain a small minority in the all-Europe snapshot at 3.27%, which keeps the transition away from higher-GWP refrigerants central to product strategy in 2026 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For installers, that means type selection and refrigerant selection are still the first filters, before any regional generalisation. For buyers, it means that sticker-price comparisons need real regional catalog data, not climate proxies. The country comparison dashboard can provide context on electricity prices, gas prices and heating-degree days, while the climate-fit tool, sizing calculator and payback calculator are better suited to project-level decisions than a region label.

A proper Baltics-versus-Balkans market index would need an EPREL extraction grouped explicitly by those two regional baskets, with at minimum: model count, manufacturer share, declared refrigerant, type, SCOP, capacity and price. That regional extraction is not in the present corpus.

Sources

• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot dated 2026-07-18
• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot dated 2026-07-18
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot dated 2026-07-18
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot dated 2026-07-18
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot dated 2026-07-18
• EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — snapshot dated 2026-07-18

Continue reading

• How to read SCOP in the EPREL heat-pump catalog — A practical primer on seasonal efficiency, test conditions and model comparisons.
• R290 vs R32 heat pumps: what changes for buyers and installers — A concise guide to refrigerant trade-offs, safety classes and regulation.
• Air-to-water vs air-to-air heat pumps — Where the two biggest product categories differ on use case, output and installation.
• How to compare heat-pump brands in EPREL — A framework for weighing listing depth, efficiency and product mix.