2026 heat pumps in Europe’s coldest regions: which models keep efficiency high?

The cold-climate buyer question: what the 2026 data can actually answer

For buyers in Europe’s coldest regions, the practical question is not simply which heat pump posts the single highest seasonal efficiency. It is which combinations of type, refrigerant and size still look strong when winters are long, electricity is relatively expensive, and gas may or may not be a fair benchmark.

The 2026 snapshot from the live EPREL catalog can answer several parts of that question directly. It can show average SCOP by type, the current top SCOP leaderboards, declared capacities, declared outdoor noise, energy classes and declared refrigerants. It can also be combined with the 32-country country comparison dashboard to show where heating demand is highest and how household electricity-to-gas tariff ratios differ.

What it cannot do is verify real installed performance in a specific house, emitter temperature, defrost behaviour, control quality or borehole design. The registry also does not record local flow temperatures, installation quality or measured field COP. For climate matching beyond a country average, the climate-fit tool is the more appropriate Househeating Pulse view.

A second limitation matters immediately: the top-model extracts used here contain no declared refrigerant values, and many show outdoor noise as 0 dB or 1 dB, which is plainly a registry artifact rather than a physically meaningful site-planning number (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That means refrigerant analysis has to rely mainly on the refrigerant universe and declared usage counts, not on a verified refrigerant split across the top 15 models.

Which heat-pump types deliver the best average efficiency in EPREL

Among heat-pump types with SCOP data in the 2026 EPREL snapshot, water-water has the highest average SCOP at 6.15 across 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). The weakest type with SCOP data is air-water at 4.54 across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). That leaves a gap of 1.61 SCOP points between the strongest and weakest type with reported SCOP (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

Ground-water sits between them at an average SCOP of 4.77 across 213 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Air-air and heat-pump water heaters appear in the registry counts, but this extract does not report average SCOP for those categories (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). So the registry cannot support a full all-types SCOP ranking beyond the three categories with declared values.

Averages by type also show the usual size trade-off. Water-water models average 35.65 kW declared power and 42.0 dB outdoor noise (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation), versus 18.45 kW and 58.8 dB for ground-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation), and 11.83 kW and 59.8 dB for air-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). On these averages, the most efficient type is also the largest, but not the noisiest. Air-water is close to ground-water on average noise, only 1.0 dB louder (59.8 dB versus 58.8 dB) while being markedly smaller on average capacity (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

For cold-climate buyers, that matters because the biggest theoretical efficiency advantage sits in a niche category with only 31 listed water-water models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation), while the market’s real depth remains in air-water heat pumps, which account for 30,452 listings (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

The top-performing models: SCOP leaders, capacities and noise levels

The top 15 models by SCOP are dominated by air-water products, not by water-water. Of the top 15 overall, 11 are air-water and 4 are water-water (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That is notable because water-water leads on average SCOP, yet the leaderboard’s volume leader is air-water.

The highest-efficiency model overall in this extract is Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W at SCOP 7.0 with 10.0 kW minimum declared power and A+++ heating class (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). It is followed by Waterkotte GmbH CTC EcoTouch 525 (water/water) at SCOP 6.97 and 34.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog), and Waterkotte GmbH EcoTouch DS 5034.5 T (water/water) also at SCOP 6.97 and 34.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog).

Among the highest-scoring air-water entries, Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW reaches SCOP 6.97 at 35.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog), while Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW matches SCOP 6.97 at a smaller 13.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ45I-1WW follows at SCOP 6.95 and 20.0 kW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog).

Top 15 by SCOP: type mix and declared size

Across the full top 15, declared minimum power ranges from 5.0 kW for NIBE F1153-4 1X230V W/W to 46.0 kW for Hoval 42 -Thermalia® twin (36) GW (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). So the best-SCOP group does not sit in a single size band.

On energy class, the result is simpler: all 15 of the top 15 models carry A+++ heating class, or 100% of the set (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That A+++ group is concentrated mainly in air-water, because 11 of those 15 A+++ models are air-water and 4 are water-water (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Readers can track the wider A+++ heat pump catalog or the dedicated air-water SCOP leaderboard.

Noise is harder to interpret. In the top 15 overall, every model shows 0 dB outdoor noise in this extract (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). In the top 15 air-water-only extract, 14 models show 0 dB and 1 model shows 1 dB (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). The registry therefore does not support a credible noise ranking for these specific top-SCOP units from this sample; for that, the quietest models leaderboard is the better route.

Refrigerants under the microscope: low-GWP options and where they’re used

The low-GWP winners in the refrigerant reference table are R290, R600a and R717 at GWP 0 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). The next-lowest are R1234yf, R1234ze(E) and R744 at GWP 1 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

Declared EPREL usage counts, however, are concentrated elsewhere. The largest count in this extract is R32 with 13,935 declarations (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Then come R410A with 1,896 declarations and R290 with 537 declarations (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Several spelling variants also exist, including R410a with 49, R410 with 10, R290A with 2 and R290a with 1 declarations (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). That suggests any simple refrigerant market-share reading from raw declarations needs cleaning.

Main refrigerants in declared usage

The article brief asks for “average SCOP levels for the main refrigerants used in EPREL listings”. This corpus does not contain SCOP aggregated by refrigerant, so the registry extract here cannot answer that with numbers. It also does not record the refrigerant field for the top 15 models shown above, despite one air-water leaderboard entry carrying “R513A” in the model name. So the corpus cannot quantify how the top 15 split by refrigerant.

For buyers focused on F-gas exposure and low GWP, the useful navigation is the refrigerants reference and the filtered catalogs for R290 units, R1234yf units and R1234ze(E) units).

Europe’s coldest regions: HDD, electricity prices and gas-price break-even

Using annual heating degree days at 18°C, the coldest countries in this dataset are Norway at 5,039.96 HDD, Iceland at 5,028.63 HDD, Liechtenstein at 5,023.68 HDD, Estonia at 4,474.47 HDD, Lithuania at 4,423.05 HDD, Finland at 4,407.92 HDD, Latvia at 4,407.08 HDD and Sweden at 4,242.38 HDD (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

Among those coldest markets, gas-price comparison is patchy because Norway, Iceland and Finland have no gas price ratio recorded in the tariff dataset (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Where ratios are available, they are comparatively favourable for heat pumps: Sweden 1.3, Liechtenstein 2.37, Lithuania 2.86, Latvia 2.97 and Estonia 3.03 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

The article brief uses a rough 3.7 break-even threshold for a SCOP 4 heat pump. On that basis, 23 countries in the ratio table sit below 3.7, while Poland at 3.71, Belgium at 3.9, the United Kingdom at 4.63 and Romania at 5.11 sit at or above it (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Five countries in the table have no ratio because no gas price is recorded: Cyprus, Finland, Malta, Norway and Iceland (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

That overlap matters. Several of Europe’s coldest countries with a recorded gas comparator are still below the 3.7 line: Estonia at 3.03, Lithuania at 2.86, Latvia at 2.97, Sweden at 1.3 and Liechtenstein at 2.37 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). This supports the editorial angle that strong cold-climate performance is only part of the buying case; local energy-price structure still shapes economics. Buyers can test that directly in the heat-pump payback calculator.

What this means for buyers and installers in very cold markets

Three points stand out from the 2026 data.

First, if the question is pure average efficiency, water-water leads at SCOP 6.15 and does so by a clear 1.61-point margin over air-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). But it is also a much smaller universe at 31 models, versus 30,452 air-water listings (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). For most European buyers in very cold regions, that makes water-water the specialist answer, not the default one.

Second, the high end of the market is not reserved for one architecture. The top 15 SCOP list contains 11 air-water models and 4 water-water models, with the #1 model posting SCOP 7.0 as an air-water unit (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That fits the practical reality visible in the market index: cold-climate buyers often end up shopping within the broad air-water catalog because availability, installer familiarity and product breadth are much better there.

Third, economics and climate interact. Some of the coldest markets also have favourable electricity-to-gas ratios where gas is present, such as Sweden 1.3, Estonia 3.03 and Lithuania 2.86 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). But country averages are not enough to size or shortlist a unit. Buyers still need local design temperature, emitter temperature and building load. The heat-pump sizing calculator, the country profiles, and the methodology notes are the next stops before turning a leaderboard result into a purchase decision.

Sources

• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-07-19
• EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — top models snapshot 2026-07-19
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-07-19
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-07-19
• Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — snapshot 2026-07-19
• EPREL public portal
• EU Regulation 2024/573 on fluorinated greenhouse gases

Continue reading

• Heat pump payback calculator — Use tariff and efficiency assumptions to test whether a high-SCOP unit changes running-cost economics.
• How to size a heat pump for a cold climate — A practical route from building heat loss to realistic kW sizing.
• Refrigerants in European heat pumps — What low-GWP options mean in practice for installers and buyers.
• How to read EPREL heat-pump data — A short primer on SCOP, noise, class labels and registry caveats.