2026 heat-pump brand share in the Baltics: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Baltics in EPREL: how many listings and how concentrated is brand supply?

The Baltic question is straightforward to ask and harder to answer cleanly from the corpus: how deep are the EPREL-listed heat-pump ranges in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and how concentrated are their local brand mixes? The short answer is that the registry snapshot supplied here does not include Baltic country-level model counts, top-3 shares, or top-5 shares. Those figures are therefore not recoverable from this corpus, even though they are central to market structure analysis.

What the corpus does show is that the wider EPREL heat-pump universe is large at 60,989 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), while the Baltic climate and energy context is relatively similar across the three countries. Lithuania records 4,423.05 annual heating degree days at 18°C, Latvia 4,407.08, and Estonia 4,474.47 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). All three are classified as “colder” climate-zone countries (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register), which makes the region a sensible cluster to compare in principle; the problem is that the supplied dataset does not expose the actual EPREL listing counts by Baltic country.

That absence matters. If one Baltic market has only a small number of listed products, apparent dominance by one or two manufacturers could simply reflect sparse registration depth rather than broad installer or buyer preference. Readers comparing local supply should therefore treat any regional reading as a supply-picture exercise, not a sales-market measurement. For the wider catalogue context, the live EPREL heat-pump catalog and the manufacturer index remain the practical starting points, while the country comparison dashboard and the Baltic country pages for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia help frame climate and price conditions.

The energy-cost backdrop is also not identical. Household electricity prices are lower in Lithuania at €0.1955/kWh than in Estonia at €0.2303/kWh and Latvia at €0.2452/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Gas prices are €0.0684/kWh in Lithuania, €0.0760/kWh in Estonia and €0.0826/kWh in Latvia (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Grid carbon intensity also differs sharply: Latvia sits at 110 gCO₂/kWh, Lithuania at 146 gCO₂/kWh, and Estonia at 460 gCO₂/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Those differences shape operating economics and emissions context, but they do not tell us how many models are locally listed in EPREL.

Which brands dominate the region, and how much do the country mixes differ?

At Baltic-country level, the registry extract here does not record brand rankings or brand shares for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia individually. It also does not provide a Baltic-only brand leaderboard. So the corpus cannot support a numeric answer on which brand is first, second or third within each country, nor can it quantify how much the country mixes differ.

What it can support is the broader EPREL brand hierarchy that likely frames any small-market subset. Across the full registry snapshot, Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and a 24.05% share, with an average SCOP of 4.44 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. ranks second with 5,575 models, a 9.14% share and a 4.51 average SCOP (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA is third with 5,207 models, an 8.54% share and a 4.18 average SCOP (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The next tier is led by Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH at 3,602 models, 5.91% share and 4.69 average SCOP (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), followed by Ariston SpA at 2,618 models, 4.29% share and 4.66 average SCOP (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). After that come ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE with 1,516 models and 2.49% share, Vaillant GmbH with 1,195 models and 1.96%, and BDR Thermea Group B.V. with 925 models and 1.52% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

EPREL-wide leading brands

All figures: (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation)

These EPREL-wide numbers suggest that any thin national submarket can look highly concentrated simply because a few large registrants account for so much of the European listing universe. Daikin alone represents nearly one quarter of all listed models at 24.05% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). For readers tracking broad ranking shifts, the leaderboards hub and market index are the best adjacent resources.

The refrigerant story: what Baltic listings actually use most

Here again, the corpus does not provide refrigerant usage split specifically for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. So it cannot numerically answer which refrigerants dominate the Baltics within local listings. It can, however, show the declared refrigerant distribution in the supplied EPREL refrigerant usage extract, which is useful as a regional reference point.

R32 is by far the dominant declared refrigerant code with 13,935 usage declarations (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). R410A follows at 1,896 declarations, while an additional 49 are recorded as “R410a” and 10 as “R410”, indicating some casing and formatting variation in declarations rather than a distinct refrigerant family (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). R290 appears at 537 declarations, with another 2 as “R290A” and 1 as “R290a” (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

Declared refrigerant usage in the supplied EPREL extract

Selected figures: (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes)

For buyers and installers, that points to an EPREL catalogue still heavily centred on R32 heat pumps, with R290 heat pumps present but much less numerous in this extract. The accompanying reference table also records R32 with a GWP of 771 and an F-gas phase-out date of 2027-01-01, while R290 is marked as natural, A3 flammable, and GWP 0 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). For policy background, the relevant framework is the EU F-gas regulation, and the corpus explicitly references EU Regulation 2024/573.

Anyone comparing refrigerant options in practice should also use the Househeating Pulse refrigerants reference, because declaration codes in EPREL can be messy, as the duplicate-style entries above show.

Efficiency patterns by market: where the listings sit on SCOP and class bands

The article brief asks what portion of Baltic listings sits in the main efficiency-class bands and how the profile compares across Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The supplied corpus does not include Baltic efficiency-class distributions, nor any country-level SCOP averages by listing. It therefore cannot support numeric class-band comparisons across the three Baltic markets.

What it does provide is average SCOP by manufacturer at EPREL-wide level and by heat-pump type. Among the top five European manufacturers in the supplied ranking, Bosch Thermotechnik posts the highest average SCOP at 4.69, followed by Ariston at 4.66, Mitsubishi Electric at 4.51, Daikin at 4.44 and Johnson Controls Hitachi at 4.18 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). That gives some sense of declared performance mix, but not a Baltic-country efficiency profile.

The registry extract also does not expose energy-class bands such as A++ or A+++ for the Baltics, so there is no defensible basis here to quantify the share of listings in energy class filters or similar class buckets. For readers who need exact definitions of SCOP and label classes, the methodology page and glossary are more useful than guessing from partial data.

Type mix and performance: which heat-pump categories shape the regional picture

This is the part of the corpus that does support a clear numeric answer. EPREL’s largest listed type by model count is air-water, with 30,452 models and an average SCOP of 4.54 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Air-air is second by count with 21,065 models, but the supplied dataset does not report an average SCOP for that type (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Heat-pump water heaters account for 9,228 models, again with no average SCOP recorded in this extract (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

At the smaller end, ground-water systems total 213 models with an average SCOP of 4.77, while water-water systems total just 31 models but show the highest average SCOP at 6.15 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

Type-level model counts and average SCOP

All figures: (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation)

Two practical points follow. First, if Baltic listings are shallow, they are still likely to be shaped mainly by the same categories that dominate the wider registry, especially air-water heat pumps, because that is where the model universe is deepest at 30,452 entries (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Second, the highest average SCOP values sit in niche types rather than the volume segment: water-water at 6.15 and ground-water at 4.77, versus air-water at 4.54 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). That is relevant when reading headline efficiency claims or browsing the top SCOP leaderboard, air-to-water SCOP leaderboard and ground-source SCOP leaderboard.

What the data can and cannot say about Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

The data does support a cautious editorial reading: the Baltic picture in this corpus is better understood as a climate-and-supply context than as three fully measurable national product markets. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all colder-climate countries, with annual heating degree days clustered between 4,407.08 and 4,474.47 (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Electricity prices range from €0.1955/kWh in Lithuania to €0.2452/kWh in Latvia, while gas ranges from €0.0684/kWh to €0.0826/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Those are meaningful operating conditions.

But the registry extract does not record the key country-level EPREL listing numbers needed to answer several headline questions: total models in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia; top-3 and top-5 brand shares in each; local brand leaders; Baltic-only refrigerant shares; and Baltic efficiency-class bands. It also does not provide country-specific model pages or sales data. EPREL is a product-registration database, not a demand or installation tracker; the registry does not record market share by units sold in this corpus.

What can be said with confidence is that the wider EPREL market is highly concentrated around a few big manufacturers, led by Daikin at 24.05% of all listed models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), and that the catalogue is heavily skewed toward air-water products at 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation) and R32 declarations at 13,935 counts (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). In a small Baltic listing environment, those broader structural facts may matter more than a simple rank table.

For readers moving from registry context to product selection, the practical next stops are the full heat-pump catalog, the newest registrations leaderboard, the sizing calculator and the payback calculator.

Sources

• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-15
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-05-15
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-15
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-05-15

Continue reading

• How to read SCOP, energy class and test conditions — A practical decoder for label metrics that are often compared out of context.
• R290 vs R32 heat pumps — What the refrigerant trade-offs look like in the current EPREL catalogue.
• Air-to-water vs ground-source heat pumps — Why type mix changes both performance expectations and product depth.
• How to compare heat-pump brands in EPREL — A method-first approach to catalog breadth, efficiency and declaration quality.