2026 heat-pump refrigerants in Europe: R290 vs R32 vs the rest

The 2026 refrigerant landscape in European heat pumps

The current European heat-pump registry is large, but its refrigerant picture is unusually concentrated. Househeating Pulse’s latest market snapshot tracks 60,989 listed models from 777 manufacturers (market snapshot) (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Across that universe, the registry-wide average seasonal efficiency is 4.55 SCOP and average declared power is 9.3 kW (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For refrigerants, the headline is straightforward: R32 remains the volume backbone, while R290 has become a visible premium-growth option rather than a niche curiosity. Natural refrigerants account for only 3.27% of the indexed market overall (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), yet almost all of that visible natural-refrigerant presence in declared EPREL codes comes from propane-family entries such as R290 models.

The underlying refrigerant reference table also shows why the mix is changing. In the current corpus, R290 has GWP 0, R32 has GWP 771, R134a has GWP 1300, R410A has GWP 1924, and R407C has GWP 1624 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). The same corpus records phase-out dates in the regulatory schedule for R407C and R410A from 2025-01-01, R134a from 2026-01-01, and R32 from 2027-01-01 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Readers wanting the raw refrigerant code list can cross-check the refrigerants reference and the official EU F-gas regulation page.

What the data does not record is equally important. EPREL declarations in this corpus do not provide a complete refrigerant-level breakdown of average price or SCOP by refrigerant universe. So the article can rank market presence and regulatory exposure numerically, but cannot manufacture a full refrigerant-by-refrigerant price-performance league table where the registry does not record it.

How big R290 really is versus R32 and the rest

Using the declared refrigerant counts in the EPREL-derived snapshot, the listed universe is dominated by R32 and older HFCs, with propane still small in absolute count.

EPREL-listed models by refrigerant code

\R420A, R423A, R23, R421A, R411A, R35, R422A, R41OA, R413A, R425A, R419A, R33, R417A, R332 each appear at 1 model* except as otherwise shown (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

Two points stand out.

First, R32 alone accounts for 13,935 listings, or 22.85% of all indexed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That is the only refrigerant in the corpus with a five-figure model count.

Second, R290 appears in 537 listings, or 0.88% of the full indexed market (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That is still small beside R32 in pure volume, but it is already materially larger than legacy high-GWP codes such as R410A at 1,896 models, or 3.11%, once case variants and mistyped declarations are separated from the main code (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

If the comparison is restricted to the refrigerant-coded subset captured in the declared-usage table rather than the whole 60,989-model index, the market is even more concentrated. The coded set sums to 16,445 declarations, of which R32 holds 84.74%, R410A 11.53%, and R290 3.27% (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). That narrow view lines up exactly with the snapshot’s 3.27% natural refrigerant share because propane dominates the natural bucket in current declared usage (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For buyers browsing live products, the split is visible directly in the catalog: R32 listings remain much deeper than R290 listings, even before filtering by air-water units or premium A+++ models.

Efficiency leaders: which refrigerants dominate the top models

At type level, the highest average SCOP in the corpus is not attached to the highest-volume category. Water-water heat pumps average 6.15 SCOP across 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Next come ground-water units at 4.77 SCOP across 213 models, while the mass-market air-water segment averages 4.54 SCOP across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Average capacities differ sharply too: 35.65 kW for water-water, 18.45 kW for ground-water, and 11.83 kW for air-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

That matters for refrigerants, because deployment is clearly tied to segment structure. The highest-SCOP types are also the smallest by model count and the largest by average capacity (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). So a refrigerant appearing frequently in premium leaderboards may still have a small total market share if it is concentrated in narrower, higher-spec product families rather than the huge air-water catalog or the even larger air-air population, where the corpus does not report SCOP averages.

The brief from this piece asked for average SCOP values by refrigerant and a count of how many top-efficiency listings are R290 versus R32. The corpus does include two probes for top models by SCOP for R290 and R32, but both return empty datasets (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). So the registry snapshot provided here does not support a numeric ranking of top current R290 models against top current R32 models, nor does it support a refrigerant-level average SCOP comparison.

That absence is itself informative. With the available evidence, the defensible claim is narrower: premium efficiency in 2026 is concentrated by product type first, not directly demonstrated by refrigerant in this dataset (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation; top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). Readers wanting current product-level rankings should use the live top SCOP leaderboard, the air-to-water SCOP leaderboard, and the ground-source SCOP leaderboard, where the catalog may surface entries beyond this static corpus snapshot.

Price reality: what buyers pay for the leading refrigerant choices

This is the weakest part of the current evidence base, and it is better to say so directly.

The article brief asked for “price spread by refrigerant universe” and “typical prices relative to efficiency” for top listed R290 and R32 models. The provided corpus contains no product prices and no populated top-model records, so the registry does not record a numeric R290-versus-R32 price spread in the material supplied here (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog).

What the corpus does record is the running-cost context by country, via household electricity-to-gas price ratios. On that metric, many major markets are already within or below the commonly cited ~3.7 ratio threshold mentioned in the brief. Specifically, the following major EU markets are below that level in the latest semester data: Netherlands 1.49, France 1.78, Italy 2.00, Spain 2.79, Germany 3.16, and Czechia 3.35 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Poland sits at 3.71, fractionally above the threshold rather than below it (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

Across the full country table with a reported gas price, 23 markets fall below 3.7, while 4 are above it and 5 have no gas comparison recorded in the dataset (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Among the large markets tracked here, only Belgium at 3.90, the United Kingdom at 4.63, and Romania at 5.11 are clearly above the threshold (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

That means refrigerant choice sits within a market where operating-cost competitiveness is often already plausible without subsidy, especially in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain. Buyers can test local economics with the heat-pump payback calculator and country-specific support on the subsidies index. For the original tariff source, see Eurostat energy price statistics.

Where refrigerants sit in the product mix by heat-pump type and brand

The product mix is dominated by two categories: air-water at 30,452 models, or 49.93% of the market, and air-air at 21,065 models, or 34.54% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). HP water heaters contribute 9,228 models, or 15.13%, while ground-water contributes 213 models, or 0.35%, and water-water 31 models, or 0.05% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That scale difference helps explain why R32 still looks so dominant. The biggest product families are not the highest-SCOP ones, and the corpus does not expose refrigerant-by-type cross-tabs. So it cannot numerically show exactly how much R290 is concentrated in ground-water units or high-end air-water systems. It can, however, show that the high-volume market is structurally different from the high-efficiency fringe.

Brand concentration is also heavy. Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and 24.05% share, followed by Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. with 5,575 and 9.14%, JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA with 5,207 and 8.54%, Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH with 3,602 and 5.91%, and Ariston SpA with 2,618 and 4.29% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

Largest manufacturer portfolios in the current index

(market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API)

The brief also asked which refrigerant shares these brands rely on most heavily. The supplied corpus does not include brand-by-refrigerant cross-tabulations, so the registry does not record that split here. The practical next step is to inspect each maker’s live filtered portfolio in the manufacturer index or brand pages above, then compare against the full heat-pump catalog.

What the current mix means under the F-gas phase-out and for buyer decisions

The 2026 refrigerant mix is numerically lopsided but strategically clear.

On sheer volume, R32 is still the market’s main working fluid with 13,935 declarations (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). On regulatory positioning, it sits in a less comfortable place: GWP 771 and a recorded phase-out date of 2027-01-01 in the corpus reference table (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). By contrast, R290 carries GWP 0 and no listed phase-out date in the same table (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

Legacy options look weaker still. R410A at GWP 1924 and R407C at GWP 1624 both show 2025-01-01 phase-out dates in the corpus schedule, while R134a at GWP 1300 shows 2026-01-01 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Their continued appearance in declarations is therefore more a sign of installed portfolio residue than forward-looking market direction.

So what does that imply for buyers and installers in 2026? Three points are solidly supported.

First, R290 is not yet a mass-market refrigerant by count at 537 listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Second, it is already the clearest low-GWP premium-growth path numerically available in the current registry, because it combines non-trivial listing volume with GWP 0 and no listed phase-out date (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Third, R32 remains the practical volume backbone of today’s catalog despite its medium-term regulatory pressure (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

For current buying decisions, that leaves a fairly dry but useful rule of thumb: if the priority is maximum catalog depth and broad availability, R32 still dominates. If the priority is alignment with the lowest GWP bucket and the likely future direction of premium hydronic products, R290 already has enough presence to be a serious shortlist option, even if the supplied corpus does not quantify its exact price premium or top-SCOP count. For local fit, combine the country comparison dashboard, climate-fit tool, and sizing calculator rather than treating refrigerant alone as a buying proxy.

Sources

• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot date 2026-05-10
• EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — snapshot date 2026-05-10
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot date 2026-05-10
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot date 2026-05-10
• Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — snapshot date 2026-05-10

Continue reading

• How to compare heat-pump SCOP without misreading the label — A practical read on what SCOP does and does not tell buyers.
• Air-to-water vs air-to-air heat pumps in Europe — Segment differences matter more than many refrigerant arguments.
• How to use EPREL to shortlist heat pumps — A step-by-step method for turning registry data into a usable shortlist.
• Heat-pump running costs by country — Uses energy-price context to frame real operating economics.