2026 heat-pump tariff spreads: where night power is still cheaper than day

The 2026 tariff map: where heat-pump night power still undercuts day rates

The surprise in 2026 is that the operating-cost story for heat pumps is now driven more by headline electricity-to-gas ratios than by tariff timing alone: 23 of 26 gas markets sit below the roughly 3.7 ratio where a SCOP 4 heat pump can beat gas on running cost, while only 3 are above it and Poland sits almost exactly on the line at 3.71 (price_ratio).

That finding also exposes a limit in the available tariff data. The research corpus includes countrywide household electricity and gas prices, plus time series for Germany, France and the Netherlands, but it does not include a cross-country 2026 dataset of dedicated day and night household electricity tariffs. So the article can answer the electricity-to-gas side of the question with numbers, and it can show where headline household tariffs stand today, but it cannot rank all European markets by 2026 night-vs-day spread from this corpus alone.

What the corpus does show is that 2025 headline household electricity prices ended at 0.3869 €/kWh in Germany, 0.2561 €/kWh in France and 0.2558 €/kWh in the Netherlands (country_compare; tariff_history). Those are the kinds of rates that shape the baseline economics seen in our 32-country comparison dashboard, and they matter more if off-peak discounts are no longer large enough to offset the broader electricity-versus-gas gap.

For buyers comparing units in the heat-pump catalog, that means tariff design is only one layer of the cost case. The bigger one is whether a market starts from a favorable retail ratio at all.

Biggest spreads, smallest spreads: the markets that still reward off-peak shifting

A full top-5 and bottom-5 ranking of 2026 night-versus-day spreads across Europe cannot be produced from this corpus, because the underlying day/night tariff split is not supplied for each country.

What can be said is narrower. In the three markets with history series in the corpus, late-2025 headline household electricity prices were highest in Germany at 0.3869 €/kWh, versus 0.2561 €/kWh in France and 0.2558 €/kWh in the Netherlands (tariff_history). Germany therefore enters 2026 from a much more expensive retail base than France or the Netherlands, regardless of any off-peak structure (tariff_history).

The same three-country histories also show different crisis paths. Germany rose from 0.3000 €/kWh in the second half of 2018 to 0.3869 €/kWh in the second half of 2025, France from 0.1799 to 0.2561 €/kWh, and the Netherlands from 0.1800 to 0.2558 €/kWh over the same endpoints (tariff_history). That is useful context for any tariff-watch: even before asking whether night power is cheaper, the total price level buyers face has reset upward.

For country-level context beyond those three, our market snapshot and country pages show where retail energy prices, climate and subsidies line up. Germany’s country profile, France profile and Netherlands profile are the relevant starting points here.

When the off-peak edge is gone: countries where night tariffs no longer move operating costs much

The corpus does not provide a count of markets where the night tariff has become marginal or disappeared, because it does not include a Europe-wide 2026 night/day tariff table.

Still, the headline ratios suggest why off-peak spreads matter less than they once did. In countries where the electricity-to-gas ratio is already comfortably below the SCOP 4 benchmark, a heat pump can pencil out on running cost without needing a large night discount. Sweden is at 1.3, the Netherlands 1.49, Portugal 1.73, France 1.78 and Italy 2.0 (price_ratio). In those markets, shifting load to cheaper hours can improve economics, but it is not the make-or-break variable.

The opposite is also visible. Belgium sits at 3.9, the United Kingdom at 4.63 and Romania at 5.11 (price_ratio). In markets that far above the threshold, even a meaningful off-peak tariff may not fully repair the operating-cost disadvantage unless a large share of space-heating load can be shifted, which is often limited in practice.

That is why installers looking at real-world economics should pair tariff questions with the unit’s seasonal performance. Our top SCOP leaderboard and air-to-water SCOP ranking are more decision-relevant than a simple national average tariff if the off-peak edge is small.

Why headline electricity prices are not enough: the electricity-to-gas ratio and the SCOP 4 threshold

The clearest 2026 ranking shift is in the electricity-to-gas ratio, not in tariff timing. Out of 26 markets with both electricity and gas data, 23 are below 3.7, Poland is effectively on the threshold at 3.71, and only Belgium, the United Kingdom and Romania are clearly above it at 3.9, 4.63 and 5.11 respectively (price_ratio).

The lowest ratios are Sweden at 1.3, the Netherlands at 1.49, Portugal at 1.73, France at 1.78 and Italy at 2.0 (price_ratio). Those are also not the highest-electricity-price markets in absolute terms. France’s electricity price is 0.2561 €/kWh and the Netherlands’ is 0.2558 €/kWh, yet both still look favorable because gas is also relatively expensive there at 0.1436 and 0.1719 €/kWh respectively (price_ratio). Sweden is even more extreme: electricity is 0.2711 €/kWh, but gas is 0.2092 €/kWh, producing the best ratio in the dataset at 1.3 (price_ratio).

By contrast, Germany’s electricity price is very high at 0.3869 €/kWh, but its gas price of 0.1223 €/kWh leaves the ratio at 3.16, still below the 3.7 rule-of-thumb line (price_ratio). That is a good example of why headline electricity price alone is not enough. Germany looks punitive on electricity alone, yet a SCOP 4 heat pump can still beat gas on operating cost by this threshold logic (price_ratio).

For methodology on the threshold logic and cost assumptions, see our methodology notes and payback calculator.

What this means for homeowners and installers: where dedicated tariffs still change the economics

The practical implication is that dedicated off-peak tariffs matter most near the cutoff, not in every market equally. Poland at 3.71 is the clearest borderline case in the dataset (price_ratio). A lower effective electricity rate there—whether through a time-of-use tariff or another discounted structure—could be enough to move a typical SCOP 4 heat pump from parity to advantage.

Belgium at 3.9 is the next closest above the line (price_ratio). There, a strong off-peak tariff could still materially change the operating-cost case, especially for homes with thermal mass or buffer storage that can shift part of demand. But in the United Kingdom at 4.63 and Romania at 5.11, tariff timing alone is less likely to do the whole job (price_ratio).

At the favorable end, markets such as France, the Netherlands, Italy and Sweden do not need a large off-peak spread to make the case work on energy cost (price_ratio). There the installer conversation can focus more on emitter temperatures, climate fit and equipment efficiency. Our climate-fit tool, sizing calculator and country subsidies index are the more useful planning tools.

The policy takeaway: tariff design, flexibility, and the shrinking value of legacy off-peak pricing

The policy takeaway from this corpus is straightforward: Europe’s heat-pump economics in 2026 are increasingly explained by structural retail price ratios, not just by legacy two-rate electricity tariffs. The wide dispersion runs from 1.3 in Sweden to 5.11 in Romania, with most markets below the 3.7 SCOP 4 threshold and only three clearly above it (price_ratio).

That does not mean flexibility tariffs are irrelevant. It means their value is now more targeted. They can be decisive in borderline markets such as Poland and potentially Belgium, but they are a secondary lever where the electricity-to-gas ratio is already favorable, and an insufficient lever where the ratio is badly stacked against electrification (price_ratio).

A second takeaway is evidentiary: the corpus does not contain the Europe-wide 2026 day/night tariff matrix needed to rank absolute and percentage off-peak spreads by country. If policymakers want that comparison used in market narratives, it needs to be published in a standardized, comparable form alongside headline household price series.

Sources

tariff_history — Eurostat · electricity household band · series for DE. Snapshot: 2026-07-04.
tariff_history — Eurostat · electricity household band · series for FR. Snapshot: 2026-07-04.
tariff_history — Eurostat · electricity household band · series for NL. Snapshot: 2026-07-04.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-07-04.
price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-07-04.