Czechia 2026: the heat-pump market after the subsidy reset

Czechia after the subsidy reset: what the market looks like now

Czechia no longer looks like a subsidy outlier on headline support alone: its maximum active grant is now €4,900, far below Austria’s €23,000, Germany’s €21,000 and Poland’s €31,000, but its household power-to-gas price ratio still sits at 3.35, which keeps the market structurally favourable to heat pumps despite the reset (country_profile) (country_compare).

That is the key 2026 policy read. On subsidy size, Czechia has moved back toward the European middle. On operating-price signals, it still leans pro-heat-pump. The result is a market that can still look policy-shaped, but less through cash support and more through the running-cost economics visible in the 32-country dashboard and the Czechia country profile.

The broader EPREL universe is large: 60,989 listed heat-pump models are visible across the top-brand aggregation, and the main named manufacturers account for a significant share of that stock (brand_share). Within that universe, the dominant product categories are air-to-water heat pumps with 30,452 models and air-air units with 21,065, while ground-water and water-water remain niche at 213 and 31 models respectively (type_efficiency). The corpus does not provide a Czechia-only EPREL model count or Czechia-only manufacturer count, so it cannot show Czechia’s exact listing share within the EU universe.

The policy backdrop: tariffs, grid CO2, heating degree days, and the remaining subsidy gap

Czechia’s 2026 household electricity tariff is €0.3217/kWh and its gas tariff is €0.0961/kWh, giving an electricity-to-gas ratio of 3.35 (country_profile). Its grid intensity is 449 gCO2/kWh and annual HDD18 is 3,539.76 (country_profile). The maximum active subsidy is €4,900, with two active programmes in the register (country_profile) (country_compare).

Against nearby peers, Czechia’s climate is firmly heating-led but not exceptional. HDD18 is lower than Poland’s 3,706.42, but higher than Austria’s 3,309.19, Germany’s 3,308.21, Slovakia’s 3,035.92 and Slovenia’s 3,314.50 (country_compare). That matters because it means Czechia is a fairly demanding market without being a Nordic edge case.

On power-sector carbon, Czechia is still relatively high-carbon at 449 gCO2/kWh, above Germany’s 366, Austria’s 89, Slovakia’s 102 and Slovenia’s 207, though below Poland’s 661 (country_compare). So if the market still looks unusually heat-pump-friendly, it is not because Czechia combines low-carbon power with high subsidy. It does not.

The subsidy comparison is the biggest policy shift. Czechia’s €4,900 cap is above Slovakia’s €3,400 and close to Italy’s €5,000, but far below Austria, Germany and Poland (country_compare). That is why the “subsidy-shaped outlier” story is weaker in 2026 than it was when headline grant levels were doing more of the work.

For programme detail, Househeating Pulse’s subsidy index and Czech subsidy page are the relevant references.

Does Czechia still look price-distorted versus regional peers?

On tariffs, yes: Czechia still has a relatively favourable gas-disadvantage ratio even after support levels normalized. Dividing €0.3217/kWh power by €0.0961/kWh gas yields 3.35 in Czechia, versus 2.68 in Austria, 3.16 in Germany, 3.71 in Poland, 3.05 in Slovakia and 2.44 in Slovenia (country_profile) (country_compare).

That puts Czechia above Austria, Germany, Slovakia and Slovenia, though below Poland among these regional comparators (country_compare). So Czechia is not the single most distorted market in its neighbourhood, but it remains on the heat-pump-friendly side of the regional pack.

That matters more now because the subsidy gap has narrowed. Austria and Germany pair higher electricity tariffs with much larger grants: €23,000 and €21,000 respectively (country_compare). Poland pairs a lower power price than Czechia, a lower gas price, a still higher ratio of 3.71, and by far the largest grant in this group at €31,000 (country_compare). Czechia’s current signature is therefore not “huge subsidy plus favourable tariffs”, but “modest subsidy plus still-supportive tariff structure”.

Efficiency and product mix: where Czechia’s models sit on SCOP, size, and noise

The EPREL type averages show why Czechia’s market should not be expected to stand out on efficiency alone. Across listed models, air-water units average SCOP 4.54, capacity 11.83 kW and outdoor noise 59.8 dB; ground-water averages are SCOP 4.77, 18.45 kW and 58.8 dB; water-water averages are SCOP 6.15, 35.65 kW and 42.0 dB (type_efficiency).

For a Central European market with HDD18 of 3,539.76 and a strong retrofit logic, the closest mass-market fit is still the air-water catalog, simply because that is the dominant listed segment and sits in a size band consistent with mainstream hydronic replacement projects (type_efficiency) (country_profile). Air-water also overwhelmingly dominates the EPREL universe by count at 30,452 models, versus 213 ground-water and 31 water-water (type_efficiency).

The upper efficiency end is clearly higher than the segment average, but it is not representative of the market center. The top listed SCOP is 7.0 for the Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W, followed by 6.97 for the Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW, the Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW, and several Waterkotte models (top_models). Typical “top-end” SCOP in the current leaderboard is therefore roughly 6.92 to 7.0, well above the 4.54 air-water average (top_models) (type_efficiency). The full ranking is on the top SCOP leaderboard.

Brand concentration: who is winning the Czech market and how efficient are they?

At EU listing level, brand concentration is high. Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and a 24.05% share, followed by Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. on 5,575 and 9.14%, and JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA on 5,207 and 8.54% (brand_share). The top three alone make up 41.73% of listed models, and the top 10 sum to 60.88% (brand_share).

Among the top manufacturers by count, the strongest average SCOP belongs to Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH at 4.69, followed by Ariston SpA at 4.66, Vaillant GmbH at 4.54, Mitsubishi at 4.51 and Daikin at 4.44 (brand_share). Hitachi’s listed average is lower at 4.18 despite its scale (brand_share).

The corpus does not provide a Czechia-specific brand-share table, so it cannot identify which manufacturers specifically dominate Czechia’s local listings or sales. It can only show that the wider market Czech buyers see through EPREL is highly concentrated, and that high efficiency is not monopolized by the largest-volume brand.

Refrigerants and the next shift: how much of the market is already moving to R290

The declared refrigerant mix still points to an R32-heavy market, not an R290 one. EPREL declarations show 13,935 listings using R32 versus 537 using R290, plus small tail counts such as 1,896 for R410A and 49 for “R410a” spelling variants (refrigerant_universe). Even if the R290 aliases are added, propane remains far smaller than R32 in the declared universe (refrigerant_universe).

That means any Czech distinctiveness in 2026 is more likely to come from selective brand or product positioning than from a full refrigerant turnover already completed. Still, the phase-out calendar is now tightening. The reference table lists R32 with a phase-out date of 2027-01-01, while R134a is marked 2026-01-01 and R410A and R407C are marked 2025-01-01 (refrigerant_universe). By contrast, R290 has no listed phase-out date and a GWP of 0 (refrigerant_universe).

So the near-term market direction is clear even if the current stock is not: today’s declared base is still R32-led, but the regulatory calendar favors more R290 heat pumps over time. For buyers tracking the transition, Househeating Pulse also keeps a refrigerants reference and a live heat-pump catalog.

Sources

country_profile — Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.
type_efficiency — EPREL Public API · type aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.
brand_share — EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.
top_models — EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.
refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot: 2026-06-21.