2026: R290’s share rises against R32 in Europe’s heat-pump market

R290 is rising, but R32 still rules the volume game

R290 is no longer a niche signal in Europe’s 2026 heat-pump catalog: propane now appears on 537 EPREL-listed models versus 13,935 for R32, putting it at 0.88% of all listed models against 22.85% for R32 — a gap of 21.97 percentage points that still leaves R32 dominant on volume (market_index_snapshot).

That is the core split. R290 matters strategically because it is visible enough to shape portfolio messaging, compliance planning and installer positioning, even while it remains tiny in the full heat-pump catalog compared with R32 listings and R290 listings (market_index_snapshot). Across the whole EPREL snapshot, there are 60,989 models from 777 manufacturers, so even a few hundred propane units now represent a meaningful competitive signal in a market this large (market_index_snapshot).

The narrowing looks different depending on whether you compare absolute model counts or market shares. In count terms, R32 exceeds R290 by 13,398 models, and R32 has about 25.95 times as many listed models as R290 (market_index_snapshot). In share terms, the spread is 21.97 percentage points, which is still wide, but much smaller than the headline count gap suggests because most listed products use neither R32 nor R290 at all in this snapshot mix (market_index_snapshot).

How big is the 2026 refrigerant split in EPREL listings?

The 2026 EPREL picture is stark. R32 accounts for 13,935 of 60,989 listed models, or 22.85%, while R290 accounts for 537 models, or 0.88% (market_index_snapshot). Put differently, the ratio is roughly 26 R32 models for every 1 R290 model in the declared listing base (market_index_snapshot).

Natural refrigerants as a whole account for 3.27% of the market snapshot, so R290 is carrying only part of that broader natural-refrigerant story (market_index_snapshot). That matters because the “propane shift” is real, but the corpus does not support calling it majority, near-majority or even large-share adoption yet.

Among refrigerants by declared usage count, R32 ranks first at 13,935 and R290 ranks third at 537, behind R410A at 1,896 (refrigerant_universe). The usage-count difference between R32 and R290 is therefore 13,398 declarations (refrigerant_universe). That ranking alone explains why many large-volume suppliers still treat R32 as the mainstream commercial base, even as they prepare for a post-2027 transition signaled in the refrigerants reference: R32’s listed phase-out date in the reference table is 2027-01-01, while R290 has no phase-out date and a GWP of 0 versus 771 for R32 (refrigerant_universe).

One limitation is important: the corpus does not include a time series of 2025-to-2026 refrigerant shares, so it cannot quantify year-on-year growth in R290 share. The “rising” part of the story here is a positioning read from the 2026 snapshot and regulatory context, not a measured multi-period trend.

Which brands are driving the switch to R290?

The corpus does not contain brand-level refrigerant splits, so it cannot answer which five brands have the highest R290 share in their catalog, which five remain most dependent on R32, or any brand-by-brand R290-versus-R32 percentages.

What it does show is where a refrigerant pivot would matter most. Daikin Europe N.V. alone accounts for 14,668 listed models, or 24.05% of the market; Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. has 5,575 models, or 9.14%; JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA has 5,207, or 8.54%; Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH has 3,602, or 5.91%; and Ariston SpA has 2,618, or 4.29% (brand_share).

Those top five brands together represent 31,670 models, or 51.93% of all listed products, so any refrigerant rebalancing by a handful of major manufacturers can move the market narrative quickly even if total propane share remains below 1% for now (brand_share). The next tier is smaller but still relevant: ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE sits at 2.49%, Vaillant GmbH at 1.96%, and BDR Thermea Group B.V. at 1.52% (brand_share).

For readers wanting the current brand pecking order, the manufacturer index and market index dashboard are the better reference points than any unsupported refrigerant-by-brand claims.

Where the market is most ready for the change: countries, tariffs, and subsidies

The countries with the strongest cost conditions for heat pumps are those below the roughly 3.7 electricity-to-gas price ratio threshold. On that measure, 23 countries in the price-ratio table sit below 3.7, while Poland at 3.71 is just above it and Belgium at 3.9 is clearly above (price_ratio).

The most favorable ratios are Sweden at 1.3, the Netherlands at 1.49, Portugal at 1.73, France at 1.78 and Italy at 2.0 (price_ratio). Among larger heating markets with explicit subsidy support, France combines a 1.78 ratio with a maximum subsidy of €11,000; the Netherlands combines 1.49 with €2,750; Italy pairs 2.0 with €5,000; Austria has 2.68 with €23,000; and Germany has 3.16 with €21,000 (price_ratio) (country_compare).

Poland is the standout on subsidy size rather than tariff advantage: its ratio is 3.71, essentially on the threshold, but its maximum subsidy reaches €31,000, the highest figure in the country table (price_ratio) (country_compare). Austria follows at €23,000, Germany at €21,000, and France at €11,000 (country_compare). That mix suggests the best “ready for transition” markets are not only those with low running-cost ratios, but those where policy support offsets weaker price signals.

For country-level context, see the 32-country comparison dashboard, Austria, Belgium, and Czechia, as well as the subsidy index for current support regimes.

The refrigerant ladder: declared usage counts and the place of R290 and R32

In the declared refrigerant ladder, R32 is first with 13,935 uses, R410A second with 1,896, and R290 third with 537 (refrigerant_universe). After that, the counts collapse quickly: R410a appears 49 times, R410 10 times, and most other codes only once or twice (refrigerant_universe).

That distribution matters more than the raw R290 share alone. R290 is not fighting for marginal visibility among obscure codes; it already sits in third place in the refrigerant universe by declared use, even though it remains far behind R32 and still trails legacy R410A by 1,359 declarations (refrigerant_universe). So the market signal is not “R290 has arrived as the dominant refrigerant.” It is “R290 has become the leading non-fluorinated named option in a catalog still anchored by HFCs,” with GWP 0 and no listed phase-out date versus 771 GWP and a 2027-01-01 phase-out marker for R32 (refrigerant_universe).

Why the shift matters for positioning: efficiency leaders, compliance, and portfolio strategy

The highest-efficiency products in the corpus do not settle the R290-versus-R32 performance debate, because the top-models probe does not report refrigerant for any of the top 15 SCOP entries. That means the corpus cannot say how R290 and R32 compare within the highest-efficiency list on SCOP or capacity.

What it can say is that the efficiency frontier is high and varied. The top SCOP model, Risch Kälte- und Klimatechnik GmbH OH I 4esr TWW W/W, reaches 7.0 SCOP; the 15th-ranked entry, NIBE AB NIBE F1153-4 1X230V W/W, is at 6.88, so the spread across the top 15 is just 0.12 SCOP points (top_models). Capacity in that same list runs from 5.0 kW to 46.0 kW, a 41.0 kW spread (top_models). Several leading entries are viewable through the top SCOP leaderboard, including Master Therm tepelná čerpadla s.r.o. AQ30I-0WW at 6.97 SCOP and Hoval Aktiengesellschaft 42 -Thermalia® twin (26) GW at 6.97 (top_models).

So the positioning takeaway is narrower than many marketing claims suggest. In 2026, R32 still owns listed volume, but R290 now has enough presence — 537 declared models and third place in refrigerant usage — to function as a portfolio marker for brands preparing for lower-GWP competition and post-F-gas repositioning (market_index_snapshot) (refrigerant_universe). The shift matters less because propane has already won, and more because buyers, installers and journalists can now see the split clearly in the data.

Sources

market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.
refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.
brand_share — EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.
price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.
top_models — EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog. Snapshot: 2026-07-08.