2026 heat-pump tariff watch: which markets still pay back overnight use?

The 2026 tariff screen: where overnight heat-pump use still pays

Night-shifting is still financially meaningful in only a minority of European markets: 22 countries in the current comparison are below an electricity-to-gas tariff ratio of 3.7, while Poland sits exactly at 3.71 and four markets are above it (price_ratio). That matters because the old blanket pitch — that a heat pump can always win on cheap overnight electricity — no longer survives a cross-country tariff screen.

Using the latest Eurostat household tariffs, the sub-3.7 group runs from Sweden at 1.3 through Czechia at 3.35; it includes Sweden, Netherlands, Portugal, France, Italy, Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, Greece, Denmark, Austria, Spain, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, Estonia, Croatia, Slovakia, Ireland, Germany, Hungary and Czechia (price_ratio). At the edge, Poland is 3.71, effectively on the line rather than clearly below it (price_ratio). Above that, Belgium is 3.9, the United Kingdom 4.63, and Romania 5.11 (price_ratio).

That is the useful screen for buyers checking whether tariff timing still changes the operating-cost story. If a market already sits comfortably below the break-even ratio, overnight use can strengthen the economics. If it is already at or above the threshold, night-use optimisation may help, but it is no longer a universal argument on its own. For broader context, our 32-country comparison dashboard and market index track the same market-wide pricing backdrop.

The break-even rule: why the 3.7 electricity-to-gas ratio matters for SCOP 4

The article seed sets the key rule: for a heat pump with SCOP 4, an electricity-to-gas tariff ratio of about 3.7 is the break-even point for running-cost comparisons. The current tariff data show how far each country sits below or above that line (price_ratio).

Among the most favourable markets, the gap to break-even is wide. Sweden’s 1.3 ratio is 2.4 points below 3.7, or about 64.9% below the threshold \[((3.7-1.3)/3.7)\] (price_ratio). The Netherlands at 1.49 is 2.21 points, or 59.7%, below (price_ratio). Portugal at 1.73 is 1.97 points, or 53.2%, below, and France at 1.78 is 1.92 points, or 51.9%, below (price_ratio). Those are the markets where tariff structure still leaves obvious room for a heat pump to outperform gas on running cost, especially if some consumption is shifted into cheaper periods.

At the other end, the economics are much tighter or inverted. Poland at 3.71 is 0.01 points above the threshold, effectively flat (price_ratio). Belgium at 3.9 is 0.2 points, or 5.4%, above; the UK at 4.63 is 0.93 points, or 25.1%, above; and Romania at 5.11 is 1.41 points, or 38.1%, above (price_ratio).

The break-even screen is not a full system model; climate, emitter temperatures and installation quality still matter. But it is a clean first-pass test for whether tariff-based sales claims still hold. Readers comparing product efficiency claims can cross-check against our top-SCOP leaderboard and air-to-water SCOP ranking.

The best and worst markets in Europe, ranked by tariff spread

The current spread between the best and worst electricity-to-gas tariff environments is large. The smallest ratio in the comparison is Sweden’s 1.3, while the largest is Romania’s 5.11, a difference of 3.81 ratio points across the sample (price_ratio). That is the headline divergence.

Ranked from most favourable to least favourable by ratio, the top end is Sweden (1.3), Netherlands (1.49), Portugal (1.73), France (1.78) and Italy (2.0) (price_ratio). The bottom end is Romania (5.11), United Kingdom (4.63), Belgium (3.9), Poland (3.71) and Czechia (3.35) if the ranking is read upward from the threshold zone (price_ratio).

That ranking sits on top of very different absolute electricity prices. The highest current household electricity tariff in the dataset is Ireland at €0.4042/kWh, followed by Germany at €0.3869/kWh (price_ratio). The lowest is Hungary at €0.1082/kWh, followed by Bulgaria at €0.1355/kWh (price_ratio). Absolute price and ratio are not the same thing: Ireland has Europe’s highest electricity price in this comparison but still lands at a 3.11 ratio, because gas is also relatively expensive there (price_ratio). Sweden, by contrast, has a middling electricity price of €0.2711/kWh but an exceptionally low ratio because gas is €0.2092/kWh (price_ratio).

For overnight load shifting, that means the strongest savings case is not simply “where power is cheapest”. It is “where electricity is cheap relative to gas, and where time-of-use differentials still exist”. The corpus does not provide country-level day/night tariff splits, so it cannot quantify the overnight discount itself. It can only show where the underlying ratio leaves enough room for such discounts to matter.

Country snapshots: Germany, France and Poland as contrasting cases

Germany is still below the SCOP-4 break-even line, but not by much. Its current household tariffs are €0.3869/kWh for electricity and €0.1223/kWh for gas, for a ratio of 3.16 (price_ratio). That is 0.54 points below 3.7, leaving some room for heat-pump savings, but much less than in the top-tier markets (price_ratio). Germany also combines that with an average climate zone and 3,308 heating degree days, so winter demand is not trivial (country_compare). Buyers can check the full Germany country profile and Germany subsidy page.

France remains one of the clearest tariff cases for heat pumps. Electricity is €0.2561/kWh and gas €0.1436/kWh, for a ratio of 1.78 — 1.92 points below the break-even line (price_ratio). France also has a lower grid intensity at 56 gCO₂/kWh and 2,759.65 heating degree days in the current comparison set (country_compare). That makes France a strong example of a market where operating-cost claims still look robust, even before any time-shifting optimisation. See the France country profile.

Poland is the contrast case. Electricity is €0.2709/kWh and gas €0.073/kWh, producing a ratio of 3.71 (price_ratio). That is essentially break-even for SCOP 4, not a comfortable margin. Poland also has 3,706.42 heating degree days, higher than Germany and France, which raises the stakes for seasonal running-cost assumptions (country_compare). On tariff logic alone, Poland is where “run it at night and it will obviously be cheaper” becomes hard to defend as a general statement. The Poland country profile and country comparison page show that tension clearly.

What the tariff history says about whether the night-shifting advantage is shrinking

The corpus includes electricity tariff history only for Germany, so broader cross-country trend claims cannot be made from this dataset. For Germany, however, the picture is clear: the latest historical Eurostat point is 2025 H2 at €0.3869/kWh, down from the 2023 H1 peak of €0.4125/kWh but still well above 2018 H1 at €0.2987/kWh (tariff_history).

That means Germany’s current household electricity tariff is €0.0256/kWh lower than the 2023 H1 peak, a decline of about 6.2%, but €0.0882/kWh higher than 2018 H1, an increase of about 29.5% (tariff_history). If a household shifts heat-pump operation toward cheaper periods, the monetary gain from each shifted kilowatt-hour rises when the overall tariff level rises and shrinks when it falls. In Germany’s case, the post-peak easing since 2023 suggests a smaller savings upside than at the crisis high, but a larger upside than in 2018 because the base tariff is still materially higher (tariff_history).

For France and Poland, the corpus provides current tariffs but not the historical series requested, so no numerical trend since the latest Eurostat historical point can be stated from this dataset.

What this means for operating-cost claims and buyer expectations

The main takeaway is narrower than many sales pitches. A heat pump still has a strong tariff-side running-cost case in 22 current European markets below the 3.7 ratio line, but that advantage is not universal, and in Poland, Belgium, the UK and Romania it is at, near or beyond break-even (price_ratio). Overnight use can still matter, but the strength of the claim now depends heavily on country tariffs.

For installers and buyers, the practical implication is to separate three questions. First, is the market structurally favourable on the electricity-to-gas ratio? Second, is the specific model efficient enough to exploit that margin? Third, does the local tariff actually include a meaningful off-peak discount? The corpus answers the first and partly supports the second through our heat-pump catalog, payback calculator and methodology page. It does not answer the third with country-level day/night tariff splits.

That is why overnight operation should now be sold as a market-specific optimisation, not a universal heat-pump advantage. In France or the Netherlands, tariff structure still gives that story room to work (price_ratio). In Poland, it barely does (price_ratio). And in Belgium, the UK and Romania, tariff timing may help around the edges, but it cannot rescue a weak underlying ratio on its own (price_ratio).

Sources

price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-07-17.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-07-17.
country_profile — Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages. Snapshot: 2026-07-17.
tariff_history — Eurostat · electricity household band · series for DE. Snapshot: 2026-07-17.