2026 EU heat pumps: R290 crosses 30% of EPREL listings

R290 crosses 30%: what changed in the EPREL catalog

R290 now accounts for 30.30% of non-water-heater, non-air-air heat-pump listings in the live EU EPREL snapshot, clearing the 30% mark by 0.30 percentage points with 537 propane-listed models out of 1,772 models with declared refrigerants in the space-heating slice (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe).

That threshold matters because it signals a visible catalog pivot, not just a niche expansion. In the full live snapshot, EPREL holds 60,989 heat-pump models from 777 manufacturers (market_index_snapshot). But refrigerant declarations in the supplied snapshot are concentrated in a much smaller subset: 537 models listed as R290 and 13,935 as R32, plus smaller residual counts for R410A-family and scattered legacy codes (market_index_snapshot). The headline change is therefore best read as a product-mix shift in the declared, comparable heating catalog, not as a statement about every heat pump in EPREL.

You can see that shift directly in the R290-filtered catalog, the broader heat-pump catalog, and our rolling market index snapshot. For buyers and installers, the key point is that propane is no longer a fringe option in listed heating products.

How big the refrigerant shift is in numbers

Using the declared refrigerant counts in the corpus, R290 has 537 listings, while R32 has 13,935 listings and the remaining declared refrigerants add up to 1,970 listings when all non-R32, non-R290 codes are combined, dominated by R410A at 1,896 and R410a at 49 (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe).

Within that declared refrigerant pool of 16,442 listings, the shares are:

R32: 84.75% or 13,935 listings (market_index_snapshot)
R290: 3.27% or 537 listings (market_index_snapshot)
All other refrigerants combined: 11.98% or 1,970 listings (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe)

So if the question is the gap between propane and everything else in the full declared EPREL refrigerant pool, non-R290 gases hold 96.73% versus R290’s 3.27%, a gap of 93.46 percentage points (market_index_snapshot). That is why the corpus supports a nuanced reading: R290 has crossed a meaningful threshold in the relevant heating catalog slice, but it is not yet dominant across all declared EPREL heat-pump listings.

The “other gases” bucket is also thin and legacy-heavy. Besides R410A-family entries, EPREL shows only 2 listings for R134A, 10 for R410, and a long tail of single-model declarations such as R23, R420A, R423A, R421A, R411A, R35, R422A, R413A, R41OA, R425A, R419A, R33, R417A, and R332, each at 1 listing (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe). For context on codes and phase-out status, our refrigerants reference is the relevant catalog companion.

Efficiency and product mix: is R290 actually better on SCOP?

The market-wide average SCOP in the live snapshot is 4.55 (market_index_snapshot). The corpus does not provide an aggregate SCOP specifically for all R290-listed models, so that exact comparison cannot be answered from the supplied data.

What the corpus does show is that the product types where propane is gaining attention sit in relatively efficient parts of the market. Air-water heat pumps, the largest heating segment with 30,452 models, average 4.54 SCOP, while ground-water models average 4.77 SCOP across 213 listings; water-water sits still higher at 6.15 SCOP, though on just 31 listings (type_efficiency). That matters because refrigerant substitution is happening inside product classes where efficiency competition is already intense, especially in air-to-water heat pumps and ground-source models.

The brief also asks whether top-scoring R290 models are concentrated in higher-price, higher-efficiency segments. The supplied top_models probes for both R290 and R32 return no model rows, so the corpus does not support a ranked comparison of leading R290 versus leading R32 products on SCOP, price, or capacity. We can point readers to the live top SCOP leaderboard and the air-water SCOP leaderboard, but no additional numeric claim can be made from this dataset.

The compliance backdrop: which gases are under pressure and why

The compliance story is clearer than the price story. In the refrigerant reference, R290 is listed as propane, a natural hydrocarbon with GWP 0 and no F-gas phase-out date in the table (refrigerant_universe). By contrast:

R32 is an HFC with GWP 771 and a listed phase-out date of 2027-01-01 (refrigerant_universe)
R134a is an HFC with GWP 1300 and a listed phase-out date of 2026-01-01 (refrigerant_universe)
R410A is an HFC blend with GWP 1924 and a listed phase-out date of 2025-01-01 (refrigerant_universe)
R407C carries GWP 1624 and a listed phase-out date of 2025-01-01, though it does not appear in the declared EPREL usage counts supplied here (refrigerant_universe)

Against that backdrop, the declared usage counts are telling. EPREL still shows 13,935 R32 listings, dwarfing R290’s 537, while the R410A family totals 1,955 listings when R410A (1,896), R410a (49) and R410 (10) are added together (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe). R134A appears only twice (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe).

That does not mean the market is “finished” switching. It means the catalog is in a transitional phase where high-volume HFC platforms still dominate declared listings, but low-GWP alternatives are becoming strategically important. The policy pressure is easiest to follow alongside our country comparison dashboard and methodology page.

What the catalog says about cost, size, and noise trade-offs

The seed asks whether the refrigerant shift looks like an across-the-board cost increase. The supplied corpus does not include model-level equipment prices, so it cannot prove that R290 units are systematically more expensive or cheaper.

What it does show is why efficiency positioning matters more than simple sticker-price narratives. In household energy, electricity-to-gas price ratios range from 1.30 in Sweden to 5.11 in Romania, with large markets including France at 1.78, Italy at 2.00, Spain at 2.79, Germany at 3.16, Poland at 3.71, and Belgium at 3.90 (price_ratio). In those markets, even small changes in seasonal efficiency can materially affect running-cost competitiveness. That is one reason the refrigerant shift can be read as compliance-driven and efficiency-driven, rather than purely cost-push.

On size and acoustics, the overall market averages are 9.3 kW and 61.3 dB outdoor noise (market_index_snapshot). By type, air-water models average 11.83 kW and 59.8 dB, while ground-water models average 18.45 kW and 58.8 dB (type_efficiency). The corpus does not provide average capacity or average outdoor noise specifically for all R290 models, so that exact refrigerant-to-market comparison cannot be made here. Readers looking at siting and sizing trade-offs should use the quietest models leaderboard and the heat-pump sizing calculator.

What this means for buyers, installers, and product strategy

The practical takeaway is that propane’s rise in the 2026 EPREL catalog looks more like a rebalancing of compliant, high-efficiency heating products than a uniform cost shock. The corpus supports three points.

First, the market is huge — 60,989 models overall — but declared refrigerant usage remains heavily concentrated in R32 (13,935), with R290 at 537 and the rest mostly legacy HFC codes (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe). Second, the policy direction is asymmetric: R290 has no listed F-gas phase-out date, while R32, R134a and R410A all appear under phase-out pressure in the reference table (refrigerant_universe). Third, efficiency competition remains central because electricity-to-gas price ratios are still high in many countries, especially Germany (3.16), Poland (3.71) and Belgium (3.90) (price_ratio).

For manufacturers, that favors a broader propane offer and more visible positioning in manufacturer profiles, whether from large incumbents such as Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH, Daikin Europe N.V., or Vaillant GmbH. For installers and technically literate buyers, the shift means refrigerant choice is now a mainstream filter alongside SCOP, capacity, and noise — and increasingly a proxy for future-proofing.

Sources

market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot: 2026-06-26.
refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot: 2026-06-26.
type_efficiency — EPREL Public API · type aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-06-26.
price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-06-26.
top_models — EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog. Snapshot: 2026-06-26.