2026 heat-pump brand shares in Central and Eastern Europe: who is winning outside the big markets?

CEE brand concentration in 2026: where the market is most and least fragmented

The difficulty with this brief is methodological before it is editorial. The corpus includes EU-wide brand shares, refrigerant declarations, and country-level energy-price and subsidy context, but it does not include country-level EPREL brand-share tables for Central and Eastern Europe. That means the registry data supplied here can support a strong regional framing, but it cannot numerically rank which individual CEE country has the highest or lowest top-brand concentration, nor identify the top three manufacturers within each selected country. The registry snapshot simply does not expose those country-by-country brand listings in this corpus.

What can be said with confidence is that the overall EU heat-pump catalog remains highly concentrated at the top while still containing a long tail of manufacturers. The current market index covers 60,989 models and 777 manufacturers (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The leading brand, Daikin Europe N.V., accounts for 14,668 models or 24.05% of listings (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). The top three brands — Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V., and JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA — together account for 47.73% of all listed models, adding 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

That is the benchmark against which smaller Central and Eastern European markets should be read. For country-level structure, readers will need either future corpus updates or the live leaderboards hub and market snapshot if those views are expanded. Based on the data available here, CEE is best treated as a patchwork of operating economics rather than a single brand hierarchy.

A useful cluster for that patchwork is Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia. All appear in the country-price tables, and they split clearly on electricity-to-gas economics and subsidy support. The 32-country comparison dashboard and the country pages for Bulgaria and Czechia are the natural follow-ons.

Who leads: the top manufacturers and their model-share gaps

Across the full EU catalog, the top 10 manufacturers account for 60.88% of all listings when their shares are summed: 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% + 5.91% + 4.29% + 2.49% + 1.96% + 1.52% + 1.51% + 1.47% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). That leaves roughly two-fifths of the catalog spread across hundreds of smaller names, which is why the headline concentration coexists with a very broad manufacturer base of 777 companies (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The lead over second place is wide. Daikin’s 24.05% share exceeds Mitsubishi Electric’s 9.14% by 14.91 percentage points (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Against third-placed Johnson Controls Hitachi at 8.54%, the gap is 15.51 percentage points (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

Below the top three, the next tier is led by Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH with 3,602 models and 5.91% share (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), followed by Ariston SpA with 2,618 models and 4.29% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). That is already a different market position from the top tier: Bosch trails Johnson Controls Hitachi by 2.63 percentage points, and Ariston trails Bosch by 1.62 percentage points (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

For installers and distributors in smaller CEE markets, this matters because local market visibility often comes from a handful of suppliers with broad catalogs, not necessarily from the longest manufacturer list. But again, the corpus here does not quantify how many manufacturers account for the bulk of listings in each selected CEE country. It only quantifies the EU-wide universe. Readers looking for the broader supplier set can browse the full manufacturer index or the live EPREL catalog.

Efficiency and product mix: SCOP, type split and what the leading brands sell

At EU level, the average declared SCOP in the current snapshot is 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Among the leading brands in the corpus, Bosch has the highest average SCOP at 4.69 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), which is 0.14 above the EU average of 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Ariston follows at 4.66, or 0.11 above the EU average (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Among the top 15 listed in the market snapshot, [GORENJE GOSPODINJSKI APARATI D.O.O.] is shown at 4.67, though it sits outside the top-10 brand-share table (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

At the other end of the top brands, Johnson Controls Hitachi averages 4.18, which is 0.37 below the EU average of 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Toshiba Carrier Europe appears even lower at 3.93 in the top-15 snapshot, 0.62 below the EU average (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

That EU benchmark matters because the question asks for the highest-average-SCOP brands in selected CEE markets and the gap to country averages. The corpus does not provide country-level brand SCOP averages, so that country ranking cannot be answered numerically here. The available answer is only EU-wide.

The same limitation applies to type split by selected country. The market index shows that air-water units dominate the EU catalog with 30,452 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), versus 21,065 air-air models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), 9,228 heat-pump water heaters (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), 213 ground-water units (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), and 31 water-water units (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-water therefore represents 49.93% of all listed models, using 30,452 out of 60,989 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For smaller CEE markets, the likely commercial relevance is clear even if the country-level count is absent: the European catalog is anchored by air-water heat pumps, not by niche ground-source volumes. Readers comparing operating envelopes can also use the top SCOP air-to-water leaderboard and the climate-zone explainer.

Refrigerants in the lineup: R290 versus R32 across the region

The refrigerant story is much less balanced than some marketing would suggest. In the EPREL-derived market snapshot, R32 appears in 13,935 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), while R290 appears in 537 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That means R32 listings outnumber R290 listings by 13,398 models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). As shares of the full 60,989-model catalog, R32 accounts for 22.85% and R290 for 0.88% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

Natural refrigerants overall represent 3.27% of listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The refrigerants reference helps explain why that remains a small installed share despite rising attention around propane. In the reference table, R290 is classified as a natural HC refrigerant with GWP 0 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes), while R32 is an HFC with GWP 771 and a listed phase-out date of 2027-01-01 in the reference schedule (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

R410A is still present in 1,896 declared models, plus a further 49 logged as “R410a” and 10 as “R410” (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The declared-code messiness is itself a reminder that EPREL is a manufacturer registry first, not a perfectly normalized market database.

The question asks for the refrigerant mix of leading brands in each selected country, including percentages using R290 versus R32 versus other refrigerants. The corpus does not include brand-by-country refrigerant splits, so that cannot be answered directly. What can be inspected instead is the live catalog filtered to R290 models or the much larger pool of R32 models, alongside the official EPREL registry and the current EU F-gas regulation.

Price context: which markets make heat pumps look cheapest to run

This is where the selected CEE cluster becomes clearer than the brand data. Using the price-ratio table, an electricity-to-gas ratio below the approximate 3.7 threshold is the line for a SCOP 4 heat pump to look competitive on running cost terms.

Among the selected CEE markets, Bulgaria is at 2.09, which is 1.61 points below 3.7 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Slovenia is at 2.44, or 1.26 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Hungary is at 3.23, or 0.47 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Czechia is at 3.35, or 0.35 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Slovakia is at 3.05, or 0.65 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Estonia is at 3.03, or 0.67 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Lithuania is at 2.86, or 0.84 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Croatia is at 3.05, or 0.65 below (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

Poland sits almost exactly on the threshold at 3.71, just 0.01 above 3.7 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Romania is the outlier in the other direction at 5.11, which is 1.41 above 3.7 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

That produces a practical split:

(price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester; country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register)

This is why “CEE” is not a single commercial story. Poland combines near-parity running economics with a very large maximum subsidy of €31,000 and one active scheme (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Czechia offers a lower maximum subsidy of €4,900 but two active schemes (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Slovakia has €3,400 and one active scheme (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Bulgaria and Hungary have favourable price ratios but no active subsidies recorded in this corpus (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

For buyers and installers, that means the subsidy index, country comparison, and payback calculator matter more than a generic regional growth narrative.

What this means for installers and distributors in smaller Central and Eastern European markets

The supported conclusion from this corpus is narrower than the headline topic but still useful.

First, the EU catalog is concentrated at the top: one brand holds 24.05% of listings and the top three hold 47.73% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Second, product architecture is dominated by air-water units at 49.93% of all models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Third, the refrigerant transition is real in policy terms but still early in listing terms, with R290 at 0.88% against R32 at 22.85% of cataloged models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Fourth, operating-cost logic differs sharply across CEE: Bulgaria, Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Czechia all sit below the approximate 3.7 parity line, while Poland is effectively on it and Romania is well above it (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

What cannot be stated from this corpus is which brand is winning in each smaller CEE country, how concentrated each local market is, which leading country brand has the highest SCOP, or what refrigerant split those leading brands show by country. The registry snapshot supplied here does not record those country-level manufacturer distributions.

That limitation aside, the commercial implication is straightforward. In smaller Central and Eastern European markets, the strongest opportunity is not “CEE” in general but a subset of countries where power-to-gas ratios already favour heat pumps and subsidy policy does not cancel that advantage. Installers should read local economics first, then shortlist from the broad heat-pump catalog, compare supplier breadth in the manufacturer directory, and run project-level economics through the payback calculator and subsidy calculator. Distributor strategy in 2026 is likely to work best where those three layers — tariff ratio, scheme support, and a relevant air-water product range — line up.

Sources

• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot 2026-06-01
• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot 2026-06-01
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-06-01
• Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — snapshot 2026-06-01
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-06-01

Continue reading

• Heat pump payback calculator — Compare running-cost assumptions with local tariffs and subsidies.
• Air-to-water heat pump guide — A practical primer on the dominant product type in the European catalog.
• R290 vs R32 guide — A plain-language look at the refrigerant trade-offs behind current model listings.
• Heat pump subsidies by country — A starting point for navigating scheme design across European markets.