2026 heat-pump brand share in Europe outside the big 15 markets

The rest-of-Europe brand map: who actually leads outside the big 15

The awkward starting point is that the corpus does not include a separate EPREL cut for “Europe outside the big 15”. It includes a Europe-wide brand ranking, a Europe-wide market snapshot, Europe-wide type and refrigerant aggregates, and country-level tariff data. So the registry can show the baseline that smaller markets sit against, but it does not directly record brand share for a “rest-of-Europe” subset.

That Europe-wide baseline is already quite top-heavy. The latest EPREL-derived snapshot contains 60,989 models across 777 manufacturers with an average SCOP of 4.55 (market snapshot / market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). In that full market, Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models, equal to 24.05% of listings, at an average SCOP of 4.44 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. is second with 5,575 models and 9.14%, average SCOP 4.51 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA follows with 5,207 models and 8.54%, average SCOP 4.18 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The next tier is Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH on 3,602 models and 5.91%, average SCOP 4.69; then Ariston SpA on 2,618 models and 4.29%, average SCOP 4.66 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). After that the shares drop quickly: ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE sits at 2.49%, Vaillant GmbH at 1.96%, and BDR Thermea Group B.V. at 1.52% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

That matters for the “outside the big 15” question because the Europe-wide ranking is the only numeric baseline in the corpus for judging whether non-core markets would look more concentrated or not. If a smaller-market subset is more skewed, the leaders are likely to be drawn from this same shortlist, because the full catalog is already dominated by a handful of large brands visible in the manufacturer index and the live EPREL catalog.

How concentrated is the market? Top-5, top-10 and the gap to a long tail

For Europe as a whole, the top five manufacturers hold 51.93% of EPREL listings: 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% + 5.91% + 4.29% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). The top 10 hold 60.88% once Atlantic, Vaillant, BDR Thermea, General HVAC Solutions Euro and Panasonic are added (2.49% + 1.96% + 1.52% + 1.51% + 1.47%) (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

That leaves 39.12% of listings outside the top 10 brands, spread across the rest of the registry (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Since the market snapshot records 777 manufacturers in total but lists only 15 top brands in its visible leaderboard, the gap to a long tail is not anecdotal; it is structural (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Put differently, only 15 brands are surfaced in the snapshot’s top-brand table, versus 777 total manufacturers in the full database (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

A Herfindahl-style concentration measure can be derived from the disclosed shares, but only as a partial floor, because the corpus does not provide every manufacturer’s share. Squaring and summing the reported top-20 shares gives a minimum HHI of roughly 808 points, with the true all-brand HHI necessarily higher once the remaining 757 manufacturers are included (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Most of that comes from the leader alone: Daikin’s 24.05% share contributes about 578.4 HHI points by itself (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

A more practical reading for buyers is that Europe-wide EPREL listings are simultaneously concentrated at the top and fragmented in the tail. One brand accounts for nearly a quarter of listings, the top five clear half the market, yet hundreds of smaller manufacturers remain present in the database. That is why cross-checking any shortlist against the leaderboard hub, the market index methodology, and the underlying catalog by manufacturer is still worthwhile.

What the market is selling: type mix, efficiency and noise in smaller countries

Here again, the corpus does not provide a dedicated “smaller countries only” type mix. What it does provide is the Europe-wide mix that any non-core-market comparison has to be measured against.

Across the full snapshot, air-water units dominate with 30,452 models, or about 49.9% of all listings out of 60,989 total (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Air-air follows with 21,065 models, about 34.5% of listings, while hp-water-heater products add 9,228 models, about 15.1% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Ground-water is much smaller at 213 models, roughly 0.35%, and water-water is only 31 models, roughly 0.05% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The performance gap by type is clearer than the share gap. Air-water catalog listings average a SCOP of 4.54, average power of 11.83 kW, and average outdoor noise of 59.8 dB (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Ground-water listings average a SCOP of 4.77, power 18.45 kW, and noise 58.8 dB (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Water-water models post the highest average SCOP at 6.15 and the lowest average outdoor noise at 42.0 dB, but there are only 31 of them in the snapshot (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Air-air listings average just 5.41 kW and 64.1 dB outdoor noise, and the registry does not record an average SCOP for that type in this extract (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

Relative to the market-wide average power of 9.3 kW and average outdoor noise of 61.3 dB, air-water units run 2.53 kW larger and 1.5 dB quieter, while air-air units run 3.89 kW smaller and 2.8 dB louder on average (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). For installers working in smaller countries, that Europe-wide baseline suggests the product universe is still mainly a contest between mainstream air-water models and air-air models, not niche hydronic categories.

Refrigerants in the smaller-market mix: where low-GWP options are gaining ground

The corpus again stops at Europe-wide declared refrigerant usage rather than a non-big-15 split. So it cannot prove whether smaller markets skew more heavily to one refrigerant than the major markets do. It can show the baseline: low-GWP options are still present, but not yet dominant in the registry.

The market snapshot puts the natural refrigerant share at 3.27% across all listed models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). In the declared refrigerant counts, R32 dominates with 13,935 listings, while R410A accounts for 1,896 and the lower-case variant R410a another 49; R290 appears on 537 listings, with R290A on 2 and R290a on 1 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

That means plain-code R290 catalog listings represent roughly 0.88% of all models (537 out of 60,989) and R32 listings about 22.85% (13,935 out of 60,989) (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The registry also records that R290 has a GWP of 0 and is marked natural, while R32 has a GWP of 771; R410A is listed at 1,924 GWP (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

Two caution flags matter. First, the declared refrigerant counts shown here cover only the codes visible in the extract, so they should be read as declared-usage counts, not a full denominator for all models (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Second, the corpus does not map refrigerants by manufacturer, so it cannot answer whether the leading brands in smaller markets are especially propane-heavy or R32-heavy. For that, readers have to inspect filtered catalog views such as R290 models, the broader refrigerants reference, and individual brand pages like Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH or Ariston SpA.

Country economics outside the big 15: where heat pumps clear the gas hurdle on running cost

This is the one part of the brief the corpus can answer directly for non-core markets, because the tariff table includes smaller European countries individually. Using the user-supplied break-even guide of roughly 3.7 for a SCOP 4 heat pump, the smaller countries with the most favorable electricity-to-gas ratios are:

(price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester)

Also below that 3.7 threshold are Slovakia at 3.05, Ireland at 3.11, Hungary at 3.23, and Czechia at 3.35 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Poland sits at 3.71, effectively on or just above the stated threshold, while Belgium is 3.9, the United Kingdom 4.63, and Romania 5.11 (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

Counting only the countries outside the likely “big 15” set that appear to be smaller markets in this table, at least 14 countries with both electricity and gas data come in below 3.7: Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, Estonia, Croatia, Slovakia, Ireland, Hungary and Czechia (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). The corpus does not define the “big 15” list explicitly, so this count is necessarily based on the remaining smaller-country entries visible in the table rather than a formal excluded-country flag.

The country comparison file adds useful context. Estonia records 4,474.47 heating degree days, Lithuania 4,423.05, Latvia 4,407.08, and Austria 3,309.19; all four still have electricity-to-gas ratios below 3.1 or 2.68 respectively (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register; price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). That is a useful reminder that favorable heat-pump running-cost math is not confined to mild climates. Readers comparing a specific location can move from this article to the 32-country dashboard, the climate-zone explainer, or the payback calculator.

What buyers and installers should infer from the non-core markets

Three points survive the data limitations.

First, the Europe-wide EPREL market is already concentrated enough that smaller-market buyers should expect brand availability to skew toward the same few large groups. Daikin alone has 24.05% of listings and the top five brands together have 51.93% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). The corpus cannot prove the “outside big 15” slice is more concentrated, but that editorial expectation is at least consistent with a full-market baseline that is far from atomised.

Second, the catalog remains much broader than the top-brand tables imply. There are 777 manufacturers in the full snapshot, against a visible top-brand list of 15 names and a top-10 share of 60.88% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API; brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Installers in smaller countries should therefore separate brand visibility from catalog depth. The full catalog, quietest models leaderboard, and top-SCOP air-water ranking are often more useful than headline share alone.

Third, running-cost conditions in many smaller countries look more favorable than the public debate often suggests. Bulgaria’s ratio is 2.09, Slovenia’s 2.44, Lithuania’s 2.86, Estonia’s 3.03, and Czechia’s 3.35, all below the rough 3.7 line cited in the brief (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester). Where gas data is absent, however, the registry simply cannot compare economics: Cyprus, Finland, Malta, Norway and Iceland all have null gas prices in the tariff table, so no electricity-to-gas ratio is recorded there (price_ratio / Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester).

For purchasers, that means the right workflow is plain: shortlist by type in the EPREL catalog, check a manufacturer profile such as Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. or Vaillant GmbH, verify refrigerant options in the R290 view, and then run the local numbers through the payback calculator and, where relevant, the subsidy database. The non-core markets may be smaller, but the decisions are not simpler.

Sources

• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-29
• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot 2026-05-29
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-29
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-05-29
• Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester — snapshot 2026-05-29
• Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — snapshot 2026-05-29

Continue reading

• How to compare heat-pump SCOP, noise and capacity — A practical framework for reading EPREL specs without over-weighting any single metric.
• R290 vs R32 heat pumps in Europe — What the refrigerant trade-offs look like in the current catalog and under EU F-gas rules.
• Which heat-pump type fits your home? — A buyer-focused explainer on air-water, air-air, ground-source and water-heater categories.
• How to estimate heat-pump payback by country — Use tariffs, subsidies and seasonal performance together rather than sticker price alone.