2026 heat-pump brand share in Europe by refrigerant and type

Europe’s 2026 heat-pump market in one snapshot

The EPREL-backed European market snapshot currently covers 60,989 heat-pump models from 777 manufacturers (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Across that full registry, the average declared SCOP is 4.55, average declared power is 9.3 kW, and average declared outdoor noise is 61.3 dB (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

By type, the market is heavily concentrated in two segments. Air-water accounts for 30,452 models and air-air for 21,065 models, while hp-water-heater adds 9,228 models, ground-water 213, and water-water 31 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Readers can inspect those slices directly in the live heat-pump catalog, or narrow to the air-water segment and air-air segment.

Refrigerant mix is much less diversified than the marketing language around “future-proofing” suggests. The registry records 13,935 declared R32 entries and 537 declared R290 entries, plus 1,896 declared R410A entries and 49 declared R410a entries (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Natural refrigerants collectively represent just 3.27% of models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That makes refrigerant a small but increasingly strategic slice rather than the dominant organising principle of the whole market.

The policy backdrop matters. In the refrigerant reference table, R32 carries a GWP of 771 with an EU phase-out date of 2027-01-01, while R290 has GWP 0 and no listed phase-out date; R410A has GWP 1924 with a 2025-01-01 phase-out date, and R134a has GWP 1300 with a 2026-01-01 phase-out date (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). For background on those codes and families, Househeating Pulse maintains a refrigerants reference and a transparent methodology page.

Which brands lead overall, and how concentrated the market is

Overall brand share is top-heavy. Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and 24.05% share, at an average SCOP of 4.44 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. follows with 5,575 models and 9.14% share, avg SCOP 4.51 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Third is JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA with 5,207 models and 8.54%, avg SCOP 4.18 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Fourth is Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH with 3,602 models and 5.91%, avg SCOP 4.69 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Fifth is Ariston SpA with 2,618 models and 4.29%, avg SCOP 4.66 (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

That answers the headline hierarchy, but the gap is the more practical point. Between #1 Daikin at 14,668 models and #5 Ariston at 2,618 models, the spread is 12,050 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). On efficiency, the same comparison runs the other way: Daikin’s average SCOP is 4.44 versus Ariston’s 4.66, a difference of 0.22 SCOP points in Ariston’s favour (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The top five together account for 51.93% of listed models by adding 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% + 5.91% + 4.29% from the ranking table (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). The top ten reach 60.84% on the same basis (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). For a buyer or installer, that means “the European market” is not a flat field of 777 equally relevant names; it is a broad tail attached to a narrow leading group. The manufacturer directory shows the long tail, but most comparison work starts with the handful of firms above.

Two further details stand out in the top 20. LG Electronics Deutschland GmbH posts the highest average SCOP among the ranked brands at 4.93 across 405 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). STIEBEL ELTRON GmbH & CO. KG follows at 4.84 across 433 models (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). So scale leadership and average efficiency leadership are not the same race.

R290 vs R32: how refrigerant choice reshuffles brand leadership

The corpus is rich on refrigerant prevalence, but thin on refrigerant-specific brand share. The registry does record how common each refrigerant is, but does not provide a brand-by-refrigerant ranking table in the supplied data. So the exact leaders within R290, R32, or “other refrigerants” by manufacturer share cannot be stated from this corpus.

What can be stated is the market shape around those refrigerants. In the current registry, R32 appears 13,935 times while R290 appears 537 times (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Using the market total of 60,989 models, that means R32 accounts for roughly 22.85% of all listed models and R290 roughly 0.88% when matched against the total registry count (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes; market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The same data shows R410A still has 1,896 declared entries, plus 49 entries under the variant spelling R410a and 10 under R410, despite a listed 2025-01-01 phase-out date in the reference table (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).

That is the key market signal: refrigerants under tighter pressure are not gone from declarations. Likewise, R134A appears twice in declared usage despite a listed 2026-01-01 phase-out date (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). The declaration set also contains a long tail of one-off codes and apparent data-entry variants such as R290A: 2, R290a: 1, R420A: 1, and several others at 1 each (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). Buyers comparing R32 models against R290 models should therefore treat EPREL refrigerant counts as a declared registry view, not a cleaned retail stock file.

For policy context, the legal frame is set by the EU F-gas regulation, notably Regulation (EU) 2024/573, while product registrations sit in the EPREL database.

Brand share by unit type: where each maker wins

Here again the supplied corpus gives strong type totals but does not include a brand-by-type ranking table. So it is not possible to name, with numbers, which manufacturer leads air-water, ground-water, water-water, air-air, or hp-water-heater segments from this dataset alone. The registry counts the segments, but the brand split by type is absent.

The type totals are still useful because they show where any brand battle can realistically matter. Air-water is by far the largest named heating segment at 30,452 models, followed by air-air at 21,065 and hp-water-heater at 9,228 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). By contrast, ground-water has 213 models and water-water just 31 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). So even if a brand is technically strong in water-water, it is competing inside a very small registry slice.

That distinction matters when reading overall shares. A large manufacturer such as Daikin Europe N.V., Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V., Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH, or Ariston SpA can dominate the overall ranking through depth in large categories without necessarily leading every specialist type. Buyers looking for narrower applications should start from the type-filtered catalog rather than from total brand share alone.

Efficiency, capacity, and noise: what the type data says buyers actually get

Type averages show clearer differences than brand totals.

(type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation)

On the figures available, water-water is the most efficient type on average at SCOP 6.15, ahead of ground-water at 4.77 and air-water at 4.54 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). It is also the quietest on declared outdoor noise at 42.0 dB, versus 58.8 dB for ground-water and 59.8 dB for air-water (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). But that efficiency comes in a tiny market slice of 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

By capacity, the type ladder is similarly stark. Water-water averages 35.65 kW, ground-water 18.45 kW, air-water 11.83 kW, and air-air 5.41 kW (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). That confirms that “best efficiency” and “most common buyer option” are not the same thing.

Two caveats are important. First, air-air has no average SCOP in the supplied type table, and hp-water-heater has neither average SCOP, power nor noise in this corpus (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Second, the market-wide average outdoor noise is 61.3 dB and average power is 9.3 kW across all listed models, which smooths over large type differences (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Readers focused on siting constraints should compare the quietest heat pumps leaderboard; those working back from heat loss should use the sizing calculator.

What the leading model lists show about the strongest brand–refrigerant combinations

The supplied “top models” probes for R290 air-water and R32 air-water return no data rows despite being requested with limit 15 and SCOP-desc sorting (top_models / EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog). That means the corpus does not support a ranked list of best-performing models, nor a manufacturer count within those top slices, for this article.

That absence is itself useful editorially. The market’s strongest brand–refrigerant combinations cannot be inferred reliably from overall brand share. A manufacturer with a very large total footprint may or may not have comparable depth in R290 models, and the same is true within air-water heat pumps. Without a populated top-model slice, the registry does not support claims such as “brand X dominates R290 air-water on SCOP” or “brand Y leads R32 premium models”.

What the broader numbers do support is a more restrained buyer takeaway:

• If the priority is maximum model depth, the market is overwhelmingly concentrated in the big overall brands, especially in large-volume categories (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation; type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).
• If the priority is highest average efficiency by type, water-water leads on SCOP at 6.15, but within a market of only 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).
• If the priority is refrigerant transition, the registry is still dominated by R32 declarations at 13,935, while R290 remains much smaller at 537 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes).
• If the priority is balancing mainstream availability with solid average SCOP, the large air-water market is where most options sit: 30,452 models at average SCOP 4.54 (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

That is the central 2026 pattern. Refrigerant is no longer just a compliance footnote, but it is not yet the whole market either. The practical shopping field is best understood as several overlapping races: one for sheer brand depth, one for type-specific performance, and one for refrigerant positioning. The Househeating Pulse market index, leaderboards hub, and top SCOP air-water ranking are the right next checks before shortlisting.

Sources

• EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-24
• IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — snapshot 2026-05-24
• EPREL Public API · type aggregation — snapshot 2026-05-24
• Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — snapshot 2026-05-24
• EPREL Public API via Househeating Pulse catalog — snapshot 2026-05-24

Continue reading

• How to compare heat-pump SCOP without being misled — Why headline efficiency numbers often need type and climate context.
• R290 vs R32 for European buyers — A practical read on refrigerant trade-offs, safety class and policy pressure.
• How to choose the right heat-pump size — Capacity matters as much as brand when the type averages range from 5.41 kW to 35.65 kW.
• Air-water vs ground-source heat pumps — Where the market’s biggest segment differs from the higher-SCOP specialist types.