Househeating Pulse
EU Heat-Pump Market Intelligence

Comparison · 9 min read · Updated 2026-06-19

2026 heat-pump market index: the Baltics vs Benelux on price, efficiency and brands

A data-led comparison of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium and the Netherlands, showing how EPREL-listed heat pumps differ in average price, efficiency and brand mix across two very different regional markets.

Baltics vs Benelux: the headline market gap

The comparison starts with a limitation: the research corpus does not include country-level EPREL averages for heat-pump price, SCOP, refrigerant share, top-3 manufacturer concentration or type mix for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium and the Netherlands individually. That means the five-country ranking requested in the brief cannot be calculated from this dataset, and the registry snapshot here does not expose those country splits.

What the corpus does show is that the two regions sit in very different surrounding market conditions. On the demand side, the Baltic trio is materially colder than Benelux. Estonia records 4,474.47 annual heating degree days, Latvia 4,407.08 and Lithuania 4,423.05, versus 2,934.26 in Belgium and 2,901.04 in the Netherlands (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). All three Baltic states are tagged as colder climate-zone markets, while Belgium and the Netherlands are average climate-zone markets (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Readers wanting the wider benchmark can check the 32-country comparison dashboard and the EU climate zones explainer.

Energy pricing also differs. Household electricity is lower in Lithuania at €0.1955/kWh, Estonia at €0.2303/kWh and Latvia at €0.2452/kWh, while Belgium sits at €0.3499/kWh and the Netherlands at €0.2558/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Gas is likewise cheaper in the Baltics: Lithuania €0.0684/kWh, Estonia €0.0760/kWh, Latvia €0.0826/kWh, against Belgium €0.0898/kWh and especially the Netherlands at €0.1719/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

So the regional backdrop fits the editorial angle: colder Baltic climates and generally lower household energy prices, versus milder but often costlier Benelux retail energy. But on the core product questions — price, efficiency and brand mix by country — the available evidence is only EU-wide. The best way to read the five-market comparison is therefore through the structure of the broader market index snapshot, not through a fabricated country ranking.

Price differences: is cheaper also worse on efficiency?

The corpus does not provide average listed heat-pump price by country, so it cannot answer which of the five markets is cheapest or most expensive, nor the absolute cheapest-to-priciest gap. The EPREL-based snapshot supplied here tracks 60,989 models across 777 manufacturers but does not include an EU-wide average price field either (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

It does, however, show that average efficiency across the full EU snapshot is SCOP 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). For the most relevant product type, air-water heat pumps average SCOP 4.54 across 30,452 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). Ground-water heat pumps run higher at SCOP 4.77 across 213 models, while water-water units reach SCOP 6.15 across 31 models (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation). For air-air heat pumps and heat-pump water heaters, the supplied type table does not record SCOP, so there is no basis to compare their efficiency averages here (type_efficiency / EPREL Public API · type aggregation).

That matters because any country-level price difference could easily be a portfolio effect rather than a quality penalty. A market tilted toward air-water units would be expected to look different from one with a heavier air-air mix, and a market with more ground-source listings would tend to post higher efficiency. The data supports that logic at EU level, but it does not quantify the split for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium or the Netherlands individually.

For context on ambient conditions, the Baltic states are much colder than Benelux, which can push product portfolios toward heating-led configurations. Estonia’s mean January temperature is -3.91°C and annual mean temperature 6.24°C in the country profile sample provided (country_profile / Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages). That is useful context, but again not a direct product-market metric.

Brand concentration: who dominates listings in each region?

The corpus does not include country-level manufacturer shares, so top-3 concentration by model count cannot be calculated for the five target markets. What can be said is that the EU-level catalog is concentrated at the top, which gives a reference point for how broad or narrow any national market might look.

Across the EU snapshot, Daikin Europe N.V. leads with 14,668 models and 24.05% share (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. follows on 5,575 models and 9.14% share, and JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA on 5,207 models and 8.54% share (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). Combined, those top three account for 41.73% of all listed models, calculated from 24.05% + 9.14% + 8.54% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation).

The next tier is markedly smaller: Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH holds 5.91%, Ariston SpA 4.29%, ATLANTIC SOC FRANCAISE DEVELOP THERMIQUE 2.49%, Vaillant GmbH 1.96%, and BDR Thermea Group B.V. 1.52% (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation). The manufacturer directory and leaderboards hub make that long-tail structure easier to inspect.

This EU pattern supports the article’s central caution. If one regional market appears cheaper, that could reflect a narrower brand set or a stronger presence from one or two high-volume suppliers rather than systematically lower efficiency. But the supplied data does not identify whether the Baltics are more top-heavy than Benelux by country.

Type and refrigerant mix: what the product portfolio says about the market

On type mix, the EU snapshot is clear: air-water heat pumps are the largest segment with 30,452 models, ahead of air-air heat pumps on 21,065, heat-pump water heaters on 9,228, ground-water on 213 and water-water on 31 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). That means air-water accounts for 49.93% of all models, calculated from 30,452 / 60,989, while air-air accounts for 34.54% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

The five-country question — which country has the highest air-water share — cannot be answered from this corpus because country-level type shares are not present.

Refrigerants show a similar pattern. Across the EU snapshot, R32 listings total 13,935 models, while R410A listings total 1,896 and R290 listings 537 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Using the declared refrigerant counts in the snapshot, R32 represents 84.80% of declared refrigerant entries, R410A 11.54% and R290 3.27% (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). The snapshot also reports a 3.27% natural refrigerant share overall (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

From the refrigerant reference, R32 is an HFC with GWP 771 and an F-gas phase-out date of 2027-01-01, while R410A is an HFC blend with GWP 1924 and phase-out date 2025-01-01; R290 is propane, classed as natural, with GWP 0 (refrigerant_universe / IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes). For regulatory background, the relevant text is the EU F-gas Regulation 2024/573, while product registration sits in the public EPREL portal.

Again, the country-level concentration question — whether the Baltics are more concentrated in one refrigerant family than Benelux — cannot be answered from the present corpus. The registry extract here is EU-wide only.

Where each country sits in the wider EU heat-pump market

The EU benchmark is stronger on surrounding conditions than on country-level product mix. Against the EU catalog average SCOP of 4.55 (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), the five countries differ far more clearly in climate and energy inputs than the corpus lets us show for product efficiency.

All three Baltic states sit in the colder climate zone, while Belgium and the Netherlands sit in the average zone (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Heating demand is roughly 50% higher in Estonia at 4,474.47 HDD than in the Netherlands at 2,901.04 HDD, a gap of 1,573.43 HDD (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). Lithuania at 4,423.05 HDD exceeds Belgium’s 2,934.26 HDD by 1,488.79 HDD, and Latvia at 4,407.08 HDD exceeds Belgium by 1,472.82 HDD (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

Electricity is notably cheaper in the Baltics than Belgium: Lithuania’s €0.1955/kWh is €0.1544/kWh below Belgium’s €0.3499/kWh, and Estonia’s €0.2303/kWh is €0.1196/kWh lower (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). The Netherlands is the gas outlier in this group at €0.1719/kWh, more than double Lithuania’s €0.0684/kWh and well above Estonia’s €0.0760/kWh (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register).

Subsidy support is limited in the five-market set covered here. Belgium has 1 active subsidy with a maximum recorded support of €4,000, the Netherlands 1 active subsidy with maximum €2,750, while Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania show 0 active subsidies and no maximum subsidy value recorded in this snapshot (country_compare / Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register). That matters for payback economics more than for EPREL listing composition; readers can test that with the payback calculator and subsidy calculator.

What the comparison means for buyers and installers

The strong claim supported by the corpus is not that the Baltics are definitively cheaper, less efficient or more concentrated than Benelux. The strong claim is narrower: these two regional blocs operate under very different climate and retail-energy conditions, while the EU catalog as a whole is dominated by air-water products, R32 refrigerant, and a small group of large manufacturers.

That broader EU structure is fairly concentrated: the top three manufacturers control 41.73% of listings (brand_share / EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation), air-water heat pumps make up 49.93% of all models (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API), and R32 listings make up 84.80% of declared refrigerant entries (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API). Natural refrigerants remain a minority at 3.27% share (market_index_snapshot / Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API).

For buyers and installers, that means a simple “Baltics cheaper, Benelux better” framing is not evidenced here. If lower average prices do appear in one region, the likelier explanations are type mix, refrigerant mix and the local breadth of manufacturer portfolios — exactly the dimensions that need country-level EPREL cuts before any ranking is credible. Until those cuts are available, the practical route is model-level comparison in the live EPREL catalog, filtered by manufacturer, refrigerant reference, and efficiency leaderboards such as the top SCOP air-water ranking. For installation planning rather than catalog browsing, the sizing calculator and climate-fit tool are more useful than broad country stereotypes.

Sources

  • Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register — country_compare, snapshot 2026-06-19
  • Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API — market_index_snapshot, snapshot 2026-06-19
  • EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation — brand_share, snapshot 2026-06-19
  • EPREL Public API · type aggregation — type_efficiency, snapshot 2026-06-19
  • IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes — refrigerant_universe, snapshot 2026-06-19
  • Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages — country_profile, snapshot 2026-06-19

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