Baltics vs Benelux in 2026: a heat-pump market split EPREL can actually measure

Baltics vs Benelux: the market split in one chart

The measurable split in 2026 is not just climatic: the Baltics average 4,435 heating degree days versus roughly 3,041 in Benelux, while household electricity averages about €0.224/kWh in the Baltics against €0.291/kWh in Benelux, and gas averages €0.076/kWh versus €0.117/kWh respectively — a much harsher but relatively cheaper-to-electrify context in the east (country_compare).

That matters because EPREL’s visible market is already structurally skewed at the Europe-wide level toward air-water units (30,452 models) and air-air units (21,065), with far smaller pools in ground-water (213) and water-water (31), so regional differences in type mix can easily matter as much as any sticker-price gap (market_index_snapshot). The Baltics-Benelux contrast fits that pattern: the regions sit in different tariff and climate conditions, which strongly suggests different optimal mixes for installers browsing the full catalog or the 32-country dashboard.

The limitation is important up front. The supplied corpus does not include regional EPREL cuts for Baltics versus Benelux on average declared price, average SCOP, model shares by type, brand concentration by region, or refrigerant mix by region. So the exact regional ranking shifts requested in the brief cannot be quantified from this dataset alone.

Prices and running costs: where the tariff math helps or hurts heat pumps

What can be measured cleanly is the tariff backdrop behind the likely market split. In the Baltics, electricity ranges from €0.1955/kWh in Lithuania to €0.2452/kWh in Latvia, with Estonia at €0.2303/kWh; gas ranges from €0.0684/kWh in Lithuania to €0.0826/kWh in Latvia, with Estonia at €0.0760/kWh (country_compare). In Benelux, electricity is €0.3499/kWh in Belgium, €0.2665/kWh in Luxembourg, and €0.2558/kWh in the Netherlands; gas is €0.0898/kWh, €0.0891/kWh, and €0.1719/kWh respectively (country_compare).

A simple regional average from those six countries gives the Baltics roughly 23% cheaper electricity than Benelux, while Benelux gas is roughly 55% more expensive than Baltic gas (country_compare). That points in opposite directions. Cheaper electricity in the Baltics helps running costs, but the colder climate raises annual heat demand. Benelux has milder winters, but Belgium in particular combines relatively expensive electricity with cheap gas, which can make the payback calculator less forgiving for marginal retrofits.

The climate spread is large enough to shape equipment choice. Estonia logs 4,474 heating degree days, Latvia 4,407, and Lithuania 4,423; Belgium sits at 2,934, the Netherlands at 2,901, and Luxembourg at 3,288 (country_compare). In practice, that means more Baltic hours near design conditions, and therefore a stronger penalty for undersizing or for choosing products whose seasonal performance drops sharply in colder operation. Readers comparing Estonia with Belgium can see that the weather burden is not marginal; it is roughly 1,500 HDD higher in Estonia than Belgium (country_compare).

Efficiency and product mix: which regions lean toward which heat-pump types

Europe-wide EPREL data shows why type mix matters more than a single average. Ground-water models average SCOP 4.77, above air-water at 4.54, while water-water reaches 6.15 but is based on only 31 models; air-air and heat-pump water heaters have no comparable SCOP figure in this aggregation (type_efficiency). Air-water is by far the biggest visible product family, representing about 49.9% of all listed models, while air-air adds another roughly 34.5% (market_index_snapshot).

That makes one clear inference possible even without regional model counts: if one region is more skewed to air-to-water heat pumps and another to air-to-air units, the headline “average efficiency” comparison will blur unlike products. Likewise, a greater share of ground-source models would mechanically lift regional average SCOP because ground-water units average 0.23 SCOP points above air-water in the current EPREL universe (type_efficiency).

The corpus does not provide the Baltics-versus-Benelux split by type or average SCOP, so it cannot confirm which cluster leans more heavily into higher-efficiency categories. But the climates suggest why installers should care: the Baltics’ colder profile raises the payoff from better cold-weather performance, while Benelux’s milder conditions can keep lower-capex air-based systems competitive for more homes. For readers benchmarking the current ceiling, the air-water SCOP leaderboard and ground-source SCOP leaderboard are the right comparison pages.

Brand concentration: who dominates the visible lineup

At the Europe-wide level, supply is concentrated. Daikin Europe N.V. alone accounts for 14,668 models, or 24.05% of the visible EPREL lineup; Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. follows at 5,575 models and 9.14%, and JOHNSON CONTROLS HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING EUROPE SAS, SUCURSAL EN ESPAÑA at 5,207 and 8.54% (brand_share). The top three therefore represent 41.73% of all visible models, and the top ten 60.88% when their listed shares are summed (brand_share).

That is the benchmark against which any regional concentration claim should be judged. The supplied corpus, however, does not break those manufacturer counts out for Baltics versus Benelux, so it cannot identify the top regional manufacturers by model count or their regional shares.

It can still answer one part of the brief indirectly: Europe-wide, the efficiency leader is not the volume leader. Daikin, the largest brand by model count, averages SCOP 4.44, while Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH averages 4.69 and Ariston SpA 4.66 across their listed models (brand_share). Among the top ten brands, Bosch has the highest average SCOP, not the highest volume (brand_share). Whether that same divergence holds separately in the Baltics and Benelux cannot be established from this corpus.

Refrigerants and compliance pressure: what the EPREL mix says about product age

The refrigerant picture is even starker. Across the visible EPREL market, R32 appears in 13,935 declarations and R410A in 1,896, while R290 appears only 537 times; the market-wide natural refrigerant share is just 3.27% (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe). Legacy high-GWP families remain visible even though the reference table flags R410A with a 2025-01-01 phase-out date and R32 with 2027-01-01 under the cited schedule (refrigerant_universe).

That means buyers scrolling R290 models are still looking at a minority subset, while the installed-product conversation in 2026 is still dominated by R32 models and residual R410A declarations (market_index_snapshot; refrigerant_universe). The refrigerants reference is useful here because the gap between what is still visible in EPREL and what is strategically future-proof is widening.

But again, the regional split requested in the brief is not available. The corpus does not provide natural-versus-legacy refrigerant shares for Baltics and Benelux separately, so no defensible claim can be made about which cluster is further along in low-GWP adoption.

What installers and buyers should infer from the regional gap

The strongest defensible takeaway is that Baltics versus Benelux should not be treated as a simple price comparison. The Baltics combine roughly 46% more heating degree days than Benelux on a regional-average basis with lower electricity prices and lower gas prices, which changes both the economics of electrification and the value of higher-performing system types (country_compare). In that setting, product mix and cold-climate suitability likely matter at least as much as any sticker-price difference.

What the EPREL-backed corpus cannot yet prove is the exact regional split on declared price, SCOP, brand concentration and refrigerants. So the honest read is narrower: the underlying conditions for a structural market divergence are measurable now, but the regional EPREL slices needed to quantify that divergence are missing from this snapshot.

For practitioners, that still gives a useful filter. Start with climate and tariff context in the country comparison dashboard, then check whether the shortlist is dominated by the right type family in the market index and manufacturer directory. If your project is in a Baltic climate, type choice and low-temperature performance deserve more weight than they might in Benelux. If it is in Benelux, gas competition and tariff structure may be the harder obstacle than winter severity.

Sources

market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot: 2026-07-13.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-07-13.
type_efficiency — EPREL Public API · type aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-07-13.
brand_share — EPREL Public API · brand-share aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-07-13.
refrigerant_universe — IPCC AR6 GWP table; EU Reg. 2024/573 phase-out schedule; EPREL declared codes. Snapshot: 2026-07-13.