2026 EU heat-pump market index outside the big 15: where the market is still moving

Why the small-market index matters in 2026

Outside Europe’s biggest heat-pump markets, the standout 2026 signal is that 23 countries in the comparison set still sit below the roughly 3.7 electricity-to-gas price ratio where a SCOP 4 heat pump can beat gas on running cost, while only 4 are above it and 4 have no household gas comparator at all (price_ratio).

That is the key divergence. The smaller-country story is not a single sales boom across the board; it is a narrower cluster of markets where household energy pricing still leaves room for heat pumps to compete on operating cost, and where subsidies or product quality can still tip decisions. The pattern is easiest to see in the 32-country comparison dashboard and on individual country profiles.

If the focus stays on smaller EU markets rather than Germany, France or Italy, the best-priced electricity-versus-gas environments are concentrated in Nordic, Baltic, Balkan and Benelux edge cases rather than in one geography. Sweden’s ratio is 1.3, Portugal’s 1.73, Bulgaria’s 2.09, Slovenia’s 2.44 and Greece’s 2.59, all well under the 3.7 rule-of-thumb line (price_ratio). Those are not the largest markets, but they are among the clearest examples of where the economics are still supportive.

For readers tracking the wider product backdrop, Househeating Pulse’s market index snapshot now covers 60,989 listed models from 777 manufacturers, which is large enough to say something meaningful about what buyers in these smaller markets are actually being offered (market_index_snapshot).

The countries where heat pumps still undercut gas on running cost

Among smaller EU countries outside the headline markets, the five lowest electricity-to-gas ratios in 2026 are Sweden at 1.3, Portugal at 1.73, Bulgaria at 2.09, Slovenia at 2.44 and Greece at 2.59 (price_ratio).

Those numbers matter because they leave a wide buffer below the approximate 3.7 threshold for a SCOP 4 system. Croatia and Slovakia are also still inside that zone at 3.05, Estonia at 3.03, Luxembourg at 2.99 and Latvia at 2.97 (price_ratio). By contrast, Romania at 5.11 and Belgium at 3.9 are already beyond that simple running-cost line, while Poland sits exactly at 3.71, effectively on the threshold rather than comfortably below it (price_ratio).

Counted across the full dataset, 23 markets are below 3.7: SE, NL, PT, FR, IT, BG, LI, SI, GR, DK, AT, ES, LT, LV, LU, EE, HR, SK, IE, DE, HU, CZ and PL only if one rounds from 3.71 is not included; strictly below, the count is 22, with Poland at 3.71 sitting on the line rather than under it (price_ratio). So the defensible answer is 22 below the threshold, plus Poland at the threshold (price_ratio).

That distinction matters for installers using quick screening tools such as a payback calculator. A country can remain active even with weaker raw energy economics, but the markets still “moving” most cleanly on pure household running cost are the ones materially under 3.7, not those hovering near 4.

Where subsidies are doing the heaviest lifting

Among the smaller markets with active support, the highest maximum subsidies in 2026 are Poland at €31,000, Austria at €23,000, Ireland at €6,500, Czechia at €4,900 and Slovakia at €3,400 (country_compare).

That list shows how uneven policy support is. Poland’s ceiling is the clear outlier at €31,000, ahead of Austria’s €23,000 by €8,000 and almost five times Ireland’s €6,500 (country_compare). In Poland’s case, the registered programme also runs until 2029-12-31 and can cover up to 100% of cost in the highest tier, with air-air systems excluded (country_profile). That helps explain why a market sitting right on the 3.71 price-ratio threshold can still keep moving (price_ratio) (country_profile).

Austria’s €23,000 maximum is also large relative to the rest of the field, especially given its lower 2.68 electricity-to-gas ratio (country_compare) (price_ratio). Czechia, by contrast, offers €4,900 across 2 active subsidies despite a much less favourable 3.35 ratio and a much dirtier grid than Austria’s (country_compare). Ireland is another case where subsidy support appears to compensate for weaker economics: its ratio is 3.11, electricity is €0.4042/kWh and gas €0.13/kWh, yet the maximum subsidy still reaches €6,500 (price_ratio) (country_compare).

Readers can compare these schemes directly on the subsidy index, the Poland subsidy page and the Czechia subsidy page.

Price, climate and carbon: the country mix behind the growth

The smaller markets still showing economic room are not identical; they combine different mixes of tariffs, climate load and grid carbon intensity (country_compare).

Take Sweden: electricity is €0.2711/kWh and gas €0.2092/kWh, for the lowest ratio in the set at 1.3, with 4,242.38 heating degree days and a very low grid intensity of 14 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio) (country_compare). That is a cold, power-clean market where heat pumps have both cost and carbon logic.

Portugal is almost the opposite climate case. Its electricity price is €0.2434/kWh, gas is €0.1405/kWh and the ratio is 1.73, but heating demand is much lighter at 851.63 HDD and grid intensity is 153 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio) (country_compare). Greece is warmer still at 1,152.59 HDD, with a 2.59 ratio, €0.2378/kWh electricity, €0.0918/kWh gas and 360 gCO₂/kWh grid intensity (price_ratio) (country_compare). In warmer countries, lower space-heating demand can blunt absolute savings, but the operating-cost comparison still supports heat pumps.

Bulgaria and Slovenia illustrate another path. Bulgaria pairs very cheap electricity at €0.1355/kWh with gas at €0.0648/kWh for a 2.09 ratio, plus 3,250.24 HDD; but its grid is relatively carbon-intensive at 358 gCO₂/kWh (price_ratio) (country_compare). Slovenia’s electricity is €0.2121/kWh and gas €0.0871/kWh for a 2.44 ratio, with 3,314.5 HDD and 207 gCO₂/kWh grid intensity (price_ratio) (country_compare). Both remain viable on running cost even without major subsidy support.

For climate context, the climate-fit tool and climate zones explainer are useful companions to the raw tariff data.

What the model pool says about product mix, efficiency and noise

Across all listed heat pumps in 2026, the average SCOP is 4.55, average capacity is 9.3 kW and average outdoor noise is 61.3 dB across 60,989 models (market_index_snapshot). That does not look like a race to the cheapest, loudest, highest-capacity hardware. It looks more like a broad market settling into mid-efficiency products with manageable sound levels.

By type, water-water systems have the best average SCOP at 6.15, the lowest average outdoor noise at 42.0 dB and the largest average capacity at 35.65 kW, but there are only 31 such models in the database (type_efficiency). Ground-water comes next on efficiency at 4.77 SCOP with 58.8 dB noise across 213 models, while air-water averages 4.54 SCOP, 11.83 kW and 59.8 dB across 30,452 models (type_efficiency). Air-air is far larger than ground-source by count at 21,065 models, but noisier at 64.1 dB and without a reported average SCOP in this aggregation (type_efficiency).

So the mass-market category is still air-water, not because it is the most efficient, but because it combines scale with reasonably strong performance. The gap between water-water and air-water is 1.61 SCOP points and 17.8 dB on noise, but that advantage exists in a niche pool of just 31 models (type_efficiency). The practical comparison is air-water versus ground-water: ground-water is ahead by 0.23 SCOP points and 1.0 dB quieter, yet air-water outnumbers it by 30,239 models (type_efficiency). Readers can inspect those segments in the air-to-water catalog, ground-source listings, top SCOP air-water leaderboard and quietest models leaderboard.

On refrigerants, R32 still dominates with 13,935 models, while R290 appears on 537 models and all refrigerants tagged as natural sum to a 3.27% share of the full market (market_index_snapshot). That means roughly 22.85% of all listed models use R32, versus about 0.88% using R290, with natural refrigerants still clearly marginal in the database despite rising attention to them (market_index_snapshot). More detail is on the refrigerants reference and R32-filtered catalog.

The one pattern that stands out beyond the headline markets

The clearest pattern outside the big markets is that smaller-country momentum in 2026 is mostly appearing where three conditions overlap: electricity-to-gas ratios remain comfortably below 3.7, policy support is present or at least not hostile, and the available model pool is centered on mature air-water products with decent efficiency and slightly improving noise characteristics rather than on radically cheaper equipment (price_ratio) (country_compare) (market_index_snapshot) (type_efficiency).

That is why countries as different as Sweden, Portugal, Slovenia, Greece and Bulgaria can all still look “alive” in the small-market index even though their climates, grids and subsidy settings differ sharply (price_ratio) (country_compare). The common thread is not universal demand growth data — which this corpus does not provide — but continued household viability backed by product availability. Smaller markets are still moving where running-cost arithmetic has not broken, and where subsidies can still close the gap when it has started to.

Sources

price_ratio — Eurostat household band DC (electricity) / D2 (gas), latest semester. Snapshot: 2026-06-29.
country_compare — Eurostat · NASA POWER · EEA · Househeating Pulse subsidy register. Snapshot: 2026-06-29.
country_profile — Eurostat tariffs (band DC/D2 latest); NASA POWER 30y normal; EEA grid CO₂; subsidies captured manually from official programme pages. Snapshot: 2026-06-29.
market_index_snapshot — Househeating Pulse · Market Index v1, computed from EPREL Public API. Snapshot: 2026-06-29.
type_efficiency — EPREL Public API · type aggregation. Snapshot: 2026-06-29.